In a surprising turn of events, traditionally Democrat-leaning states are now becoming battlegrounds for Republicans, largely due to President Joe Biden's handling of the economy and the southern border crisis, as per expert analysis provided to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
States such as Virginia and New Mexico, which have consistently backed Democratic presidential candidates since 2008, along with New York and Minnesota, which have been Democratic strongholds since 1988 and 1976 respectively, are now witnessing a shift. Recent polling data suggests that former President Donald Trump is narrowing the gap with Biden in these states. This shift is likely a result of Biden's immigration and economic policies, which have had severe repercussions for average Americans, according to experts who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the Daily Caller News Foundation, Looking at whats happened, especially over the last couple of weeks, but certainly over the last two months, weve seen the swing states move more reliably toward former President Trump, and weve seen the reach states like Virginia be on the table and possibly become swing states.
In the 2020 election, Biden won Virginia by over 10% of the vote, and former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 by 4.9%. However, a poll conducted in May by Roanoke College found Biden and Trump tied at 42% each, while another poll released in early June by Fox News also showed a tie.
John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the Daily Caller News Foundation, Hes picking up a quarter of the black vote and half of the Hispanic vote. Hes improved among suburban women and women in general. So some key pillars of the Democratic coalition are now in the Trump camp, and theyre seeing it in states where working middle-class voters are.
New Mexico, another state that has consistently voted for Democratic presidential nominees, is also witnessing a shift. Biden won the state in 2020 by 10.8% and Clinton in 2016 by 8.3%. However, Trump is now just one point behind Biden in New Mexico, according to internal findings released in June from the national political consulting firm 1892.
When were looking at New Mexico, its obviously Hispanics that are causing a shift, McLaughlin told the Daily Caller News Foundation. Were talking about people who came here legally, and some of them have been here for generations. I mean, its a border state, and they dont like the open border. They dont like whats been going on.
McLaughlin attributes Trump's strong polling in states like New Mexico to Bidens policies on immigration, crime, and the economy, which have negatively impacted residents quality of life. Especially with the sanctuary city stuff, the cashless bail, high crime, high taxes, youll definitely see a working middle-class revolt against Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and the Democrat policies, McLaughlin told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
New York City, a Democratic stronghold, has seen an influx of 180,000 asylum seekers since April 2022. The city's generous social programs, which have ultimately burdened taxpayers, have led to budget cuts. Despite New Yorks Democratic track record, Trump is now trailing Biden by eight points, according to a June poll from Siena College.
This is the first time in recent memory that immigration has really impacted the state of New York, and especially New York City, McHenry told the Daily Caller News Foundation. They have brought the immigration issue to the doorsteps of a lot of Americans who never had to deal with it, where an open border is no longer just a theoretical construct.
Jason Lewis, a former Republican representative to Minnesotas second congressional district, told the Daily Caller News Foundation that states like Minnesota have historically remained blue because of their urban core voters despite their significant rural population. Those Democrats that will stay in the urban core will never vote for a Republican, Lewis said. At best, theyll stay home and write in [Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York]. But the Minnesota dynamic is different in that regard, because its one of those states, primarily a blue state, that is absolutely governed by an urban core.
While Trumps appeal among the rural working class and blue-collar voters is acknowledged, Lewis questions whether their support is enough to tip the scales in a state that has voted blue for nearly half a century. In the outer part of the state of Minnesota, theres no question that its red, Lewis told the Daily Caller News Foundation. But is there enough?
Polls in Minnesota have been largely mixed, with a June Mason Dixon Polling Strategy Poll showing the former President behind Biden by four points. Another June poll in the state shows Trump and Biden tied at 45%, according to Emerson College Polling/The Hill.
Theres no question, Lewis told the Daily Caller News Foundation. Trump is on a roll. The shifting political landscape in these traditionally blue states underscores the potential for a significant political realignment, driven by dissatisfaction with current policies and a desire for change.
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