Alaska's long, slow ballot count has produced a fresh jolt for Republicans hoping to hold one of the most reliably red Senate seats in the country.
Democrat Mary Peltola has once again stretched her lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, according to The Hill, and she now sits ahead by nearly 4 points as more ballots are tallied. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) puts her margin at more than 10,000 votes after she netted nearly 2,000 votes from the latest batch.
The former congresswoman now holds 49.8 percent of the vote, tantalizingly close to the outright majority she needs. With 91 percent of the votes counted, she has a genuine chance of clearing 50 percent and avoiding an instant runoff under the state's ranked choice voting system.
Peltola's campaign wasted no time declaring victory again after the new vote drop, posting a statement on X on Friday. "There is no mathematical path for Sullivan to win this race," the statement reads.
The campaign went further still. "When the remaining votes are counted, Mary will decisively be elected as Alaska's next United States Senator," it added.
The incumbent's side, by contrast, has gone quiet. Sullivan's campaign account has not posted since Nov. 4, and DDHQ had still not called the race as of Saturday morning.
Alaska's count will continue to trickle in throughout next week, with every vote required to be counted and reported by Nov. 18. If Peltola remains short of a majority at that point, the ranked choice tabulation will decide the winner.
Clearing 50 percent would matter for another reason as well. The Trump administration had previously sued to block certification of the Senate race if Sullivan lost, pointing to the presence of a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot.
The Justice Department argued that if Peltola's winning margin was smaller than the number of votes the non-incumbent Sullivan received, it could make the case that his name had confused voters. That lawsuit was ultimately dismissed, and if Peltola's current lead holds, the administration would be unable to press the same argument.
Conservatives have viewed the crowded ballot with deep suspicion. Commentator Byron York has argued that the two extra candidates in the race were recruited to damage the real Sullivan, though Peltola's lead is now more than double the vote total of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
The stakes reach well beyond Alaska. A Peltola win would hand Democrats a 56th Senate seat after an already strong midterm showing, and it would make it harder for the GOP to win back the chamber in 2028, even if Republicans hold the presidency.
Republicans have other reasons for concern in the state. DDHQ projected that Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins won the governor's race, a pickup for his party in a state long considered safe conservative ground.
The picture in Alaska's lone U.S. House race is somewhat brighter for the GOP. Rep. Nick Begich III (R) leads in that uncalled contest, which DDHQ projects will also be settled through ranked choice voting.
For now, the Senate seat hinges on the final ballots and whether Peltola crosses the 50 percent line before Nov. 18. If she falls short, the ranked choice tabulation will settle the matter, and Republicans will be left hoping the late count breaks Sullivan's way.
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