The California governors race, once assumed to be a sleepy coronation for Democrat Xavier Becerra, is tightening as voters finally get a closer look at the Biden ally who has largely tried to coast to victory from political hiding.
The former state attorney general and Biden-era Health and Human Services secretary has been running what critics describe as a basement campaign, rarely engaging directly with voters and relying instead on the states deep-blue tilt and party machinery to carry him across the finish line. According to RedState, the strategy has been so brazen that Becerras allies barely bother to pretend the election is competitive, treating the D next to his name as a de facto guarantee of power in Sacramento.
That sense of inevitability was on full display when Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass dispensed with any pretense of democratic humility. Our governors name is Xavier Becerra. You dont need an election on November 3. A Republican cannot win in this state, she declared, before veering into open contempt for Becerras opponent, British-born Republican businessman and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, sneering, And yet, a Republican with a British accent?!
While Becerra has stayed mostly out of sight, Hilton has crisscrossed the state, holding event after event and making himself available to voters in a way that stands in stark contrast to his rivals bunker-style approach. For months, however, that retail politicking appeared not to move the needle, as public polling consistently showed Becerra enjoying a comfortable advantage, with various surveys placing his lead somewhere between 18 and 25 percentage points.
That dynamic may be shifting after the most recent head-to-head debate between the two candidates. A new survey conducted by the David Wolfson firm from October 12 among likely voters in the 2026 governors race found the Democrats margin shrinking dramatically: David Wolfson poll | 10/1-10/2 LV California Governor 2026 ??Xavier Becerra 45.7% ??Steve Hilton 40.1% (Steve Hilton internal).
Skeptics are quick to note that the poll was commissioned by the Hilton campaign, and internal polls always warrant scrutiny. Yet the same pollster, working for Hilton in September before the debate, had Becerra comfortably ahead 52 to 37 percent, suggesting that the new numbers reflect real movement rather than wishful thinking.
The shift is not hard to understand for anyone who watched the April 28 gubernatorial debate, which featured multiple candidates still in the race at that time. Becerra came across as flat, uninspired, and robotic, while Hilton was energetic and policy-focused, offering concrete proposals instead of the usual progressive boilerplate; even observers who do not share Hiltons politics could see the contrast in competence and vision.
Becerra increasingly resembles President Joe Biden in one crucial respect: he is the candidate almost no one is genuinely excited about, but whom Democrats grudgingly accept because the party establishment has decided there will be no better option. That calculation may work in a state as liberal as California, but it leaves voters with a choice between a man who hides from scrutiny and a challenger who is at least willing to stand before them and defend his ideas.
Hilton and his allies have also zeroed in on Becerras record at HHS, particularly on the explosive issue of unaccompanied migrant children. As Hiltons campaign has highlighted, 479,000 unaccompanied children came through HHS on Xavier Becerras watch he dismantled the vetting, told staff to run it like a production line, and kids were sent to a container lot and to MS-13, what Bobby Kennedy called the largest child trafficking operation in history. Protecting children is the first job of government, and this should disqualify him: ballots are going out, California vote for CHANGE.
The charge is repeated for emphasis in Hiltons messaging, underscoring the moral stakes he believes are at play. 479,000 unaccompanied children came through HHS on Xavier Becerras watch he dismantled the vetting, told staff to run it like a production line, and kids were sent to a container lot and to MS-13, what Bobby Kennedy called the largest child trafficking operation in history. Protecting children is the first job of government, and this should disqualify him: ballots are going out, California vote for CHANGE.
For conservatives, the issue cuts to the heart of what government is supposed to do: safeguard the vulnerable, enforce the law, and prevent criminal exploitation, not facilitate it through reckless mismanagement. In a state already ravaged by crime, homelessness, and the consequences of lax border enforcement, Becerras record on migrant children is not a minor footnote; it is a warning sign about what his governorship would mean for public safety and the rule of law.
Even so, longtime California observers caution against assuming that a single debate or a few bad headlines will topple the Democratic machine. One right-leaning commentator noted that after years in the state, they have learned not to get their hopes up, adding that Hilton still faces a steep hill against a well-oiled Progressive Machine that will do anything to stop him.
What has become clearer, however, is that Becerra is not merely a dull technocrat. In his rare public appearances, he has revealed a harsher edge, offering what one critic described as a joyless vision for California while showing himself to be a mean dude who will resort to immigrant bashing and race hustling in a heartbeat.
That irony is especially striking given Becerras cultivated image as a champion of immigrants. Mr. I Love Immigration must only mean that hes for it when its immigration, one observer remarked, pointing out that Becerra repeatedly jabbed Hilton with lines such as, That was before you were an American, Steve, and You werent even in California at that time, weaponizing Hiltons legal immigrant background against him.
The message to voters could not be clearer: Hes clearly telling voters, I believe in immigration when it suits me, but when I come up against an actual legal immigrant whos a productive member of society, I will repeatedly [figuratively] bludgeon him with the fact that he wasnt born here. For a party that constantly lectures the country about inclusion and tolerance, the hypocrisy is, as the critic put it, off the charts.
Becerra went even further with a racially charged accusation that would have dominated headlines for days had a Republican uttered anything similar. In a line that conservative media expect the legacy press to bury, he claimed, Heres the problem I have with your policies you seem to welcome immigrants who look like you, but deport immigrants who look like me. We need to have a governor who will protect everyone who works hard.
Hilton immediately denounced the remark as beyond the pale. He called the line disgraceful, because it absolutely was.
Compounding the concerns about Becerras character is the growing scrutiny of his personal narrative. His CNN-ready, Kleenex-worthy backstory, as one critic described it, has come under fire from independent journalist Anthony Cabassa, with RedStates Jennifer Oliver OConnell detailing apparent inconsistencies that raise questions about how much of Becerras political persona is carefully crafted fiction.
Despite all this, Becerra remains the odds-on favorite in a state where Democrats dominate voter registration and cultural institutions. Yet his limited appearances have already shown that he is not just a bland party functionary, but, as one conservative writer put it, a race-baiting apparent fabulist with a terrible record of refusing to protect the children of illegal aliens from sex and drug traffickers.
For Californians weary of one-party rule, spiraling costs of living, and a political class more interested in identity politics than accountability, the race now poses a stark question. What on earth will it take for Californians to see the light and vote different?
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