California Gov. Gavin Newsom appears to have been running an undeclared presidential campaign for so long that many voters seem tired of the act, and the race for the 2028 Democratic nomination has barely begun.
According to RedState, Newsoms early national posturing was clearly designed to lock down the Democratic base well in advance, but the strategy now looks more like overexposure than momentum-building. Instead of tending to Californias mounting crises, he has spent years courting liberal media, progressive donors, and out-of-state activists, only to find that the more voters see of him, the less impressed they seem to be.
The latest polling underscores how badly this gamble may have misfired. Former Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds a solid lead over Newsom and the rest of the prospective Democratic field in 14 major surveys, giving her what appears to be an early edge in a race that remains highly unsettled.
An Echelon Insights poll conducted July 913 shows Harris ahead of Newsom by 7 percentage points, a margin that would alarm any governor who has spent years auditioning for higher office. A separate survey by Quantus Insights, taken July 37, is even more brutal, putting Harris 18 points ahead with 35 percent of the vote share.
Newsom, by contrast, has been stuck in the mid-teens, consistently trailing Harris with support hovering between 15 and 20 percent. For a man who has spent so much time pandering to the national left, those numbers are a harsh verdict on his political instincts.
Part of the problem is that Newsom simply does not connect with people in a genuine way. As podcaster Joe Rogan memorably put it, Newsom comes off like a "cardboard cutout" of a person, a slick operator who resembles everyone's stereotype of a used car salesman more than a leader with conviction.
Harris may be widely viewed as shallow and unprepared, but Newsom manages to combine that same vacuity with an oily, performative style that has earned him the derisive moniker "Gov. Hair Gel." Compounding his image problem, he cannot credibly point to a record of success in California, where crime, homelessness, high taxes, and outmigration have all worsened on his watch.
Newsoms political judgment has also been questionable in how he has handled influential media figures. It is hardly smart retail politics to insult Joe Rogan, whose podcast reaches millions, yet Newsom chose to call Rogan a "chicken" for not inviting him on the show and appeared openly envious that Vice President JD Vance was welcomed as a guest. Rogan is known for talking to almost anyone, so it takes a special kind of ineptitude to alienate such a platform as thoroughly as Newsom has.
The more exposure Newsom gets, the clearer it becomes that many voters do not want him anywhere near the Oval Office. Another recent survey paints an even bleaker picture for Democrats, placing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York ahead of both Harris and Newsom among Granite State Democratic primary voters.
A new @UNHSurveyCenter poll of New Hampshire Democrats shows @AOC and @PeteButtigieg at the top of the heap, a result that underscores just how thin and ideologically extreme the partys bench has become. All of these options are troubling from a centrist or conservative perspective, and it is particularly telling that Rep. Ro Khanna of California, another ambitious progressive making noise about 2028, registers at 0 percent in that poll.
Measured against the Republican field, the contrast in depth and seriousness is striking. It is difficult to imagine either Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom holding their own in a debate against Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both of whom are far more disciplined, substantive, and grounded in traditional American values.
Democrats may hope that a new star will emerge over the next year or two, but for now they are left with a roster dominated by mediocrity, identity politics, and coastal elitism. That reality, combined with Newsoms faltering pseudo-campaign and Harriss fragile lead, leaves President Trumps Republican Party well-positioned as the side that still looks capable of serious governance and leadership.
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