Allies of Republican Texas Sen. John Cornyn have poured staggering sums into his reelection bid, yet fresh polling suggests the veteran lawmaker may still be struggling to secure even a spot in an expected runoff in what has become the most bruising GOP primary of his career.
The three-way Republican contest pitting Cornyn against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt has devolved into a costly and deeply negative struggle that many observers now assume will not be settled on March 3, but in a late-May runoff between the top two finishers, according to the Daily Caller.
For Cornyn, who has not faced a serious threat to his Senate seat since first winning election in 2002, the danger is no longer merely a close shave; it is the possibility of being shut out of the runoff altogether in a state that has long been considered safe Republican territory.
A new J.L. Partners survey released Thursday shows Paxton leading the GOP field with 27% of likely primary voters, while Hunt holds a razor-thin edge over Cornyn, 25.7% to 25.5%. Another 21.7% of respondents remain undecided, a strikingly high share given the saturation-level advertising that has blanketed Texas airwaves.
The poll reflects only modest movement since early December, when J.L. Partners found Paxton at 29% and both Cornyn and Hunt tied at 24%. The slight tightening underscores how little return Cornyn appears to be getting on his massive financial advantage, even as the race hardens into a referendum on the Republican establishment versus the partys insurgent, populist wing.
Cornyns stubborn position in the mid-20s highlights the severity of the challenge facing the four-term incumbent, who is fighting not to win outright but simply to survive into May. Despite his seniority, name recognition, and institutional backing, he is now locked in a statistical dead heat with a freshman congressman and trailing a scandal-plagued attorney general who has become a hero to many grassroots conservatives.
Financially, the disparity is stark. Cornyns allies have already spent more than $50 million on campaign advertising, a sum that would normally be expected to clear the field in a primary, yet the senators numbers remain stagnant and vulnerable.
By contrast, Lone Star Liberty PAC, the principal outside group backing Paxton, has spent less than 1% of the combined total shelled out by pro-Cornyn organizations, The New York Times reported. Standing for Texas, a nonprofit boosting Hunts upstart bid, has spent roughly $6 million, a fraction of Cornyns war chest but enough to keep Hunt competitive and increasingly visible to conservative voters hungry for new leadership.
Even if Cornyn manages to claw his way into the top two on March 3, the runoff could prove treacherous terrain. Historically, Texas incumbents have sometimes fared poorly in extended intraparty fights, where anti-establishment energy and grassroots enthusiasm can overwhelm money and seniority.
Head-to-head matchups in the J.L. Partners survey paint an ominous picture for the senator. In a two-man race, Hunt leads Cornyn by 11 points, 44% to 33%, and holds a similar 44% to 34% advantage over Paxton, suggesting that Hunt could consolidate both anti-establishment and electability-minded Republicans.
The same poll shows Paxton with a narrow one-point edge over Cornyn, 41% to 40%, in a hypothetical one-on-one contest. That result underscores how deeply Cornyns brand has eroded among primary voters who increasingly associate him with Washingtons entrenched leadership rather than the combative, America First posture many Texas Republicans now demand.
Cornyn and his allies are not retreating from the air war. They have pledged another $10 million advertising blitz in the final stretch before the March 3 primary, hoping to break through voter fatigue and define both Paxton and Hunt as risky choices in a year when Republicans are poised to expand their Senate map.
Early voting begins in just 11 days, compressing the window for Cornyn to change the trajectory of a race that has stubbornly resisted his financial firepower. For a senator long viewed as a fixture of Texas politics, the coming weeks may determine whether he remains in Washington or becomes the latest casualty of a populist revolt inside the GOP.
Compounding Cornyns troubles, a separate Texas survey leaked to the Daily Caller News Foundation and not intended for public release also casts doubt on his strength in the three-way field. That poll, conducted by GOP firm Cygnal and commissioned by a Republican running in a different statewide race, included questions on the Senate primary and delivered similarly unsettling numbers for the incumbent.
In the Cygnal survey, Paxton again leads with 25.7% of the vote, followed closely by Hunt at 25.1%, while Cornyn trails at 22.4%. A striking 26.9% of GOP primary voters remain undecided despite the torrent of campaign advertising, largely by pro-Cornyn groups, suggesting that many Republicans are still shopping for an alternative to the longtime senator.
The Cygnal poll, which surveyed 615 respondents between Jan. 26-28, reinforces the impression that Cornyns support is both soft and capped. The fact that he lags both challengers within the margin of error, despite overwhelming spending, is fueling quiet anxiety among national Republicans who had assumed his renomination would be routine.
Cornyns campaign has declined to directly address the unfavorable polling that places him in third place. We have a plan to win the primary and we are executing it, Cornyn campaign senior advisor Matt Mackowiak told the DCNF, signaling confidence but offering few specifics on how the senator intends to reverse the trend.
If Cornyn fails to reach the May runoff, he would become the first sitting senator to lose a primary since 2010, when anti-establishment anger toppled several GOP incumbents. Such a result in deep-red Texas would be a stunning rebuke to the partys Washington leadership and a clear sign that grassroots conservatives are no longer willing to accept business-as-usual from their representatives.
Yet Paxton, the current frontrunner, carries his own baggage that alarms some Republican strategists. The attorney general, who is divorcing his wife of 38 years and has long been dogged by ethical and legal controversies, faces serious questions about his viability in a general election that Democrats would eagerly exploit.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is aligned with Cornyn, circulated internal polling this week showing Paxton vulnerable against Democratic state legislator James Talarico. According to that survey, Paxton trails Talarico by three points in a head-to-head matchup and holds only a razor-thin lead over Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who is widely viewed as a weak general election candidate.
Cornyn, by contrast, leads Talarico by three points and enjoys a comfortable seven-point advantage over Crockett in the same NRSC polling. Notably, the survey did not test Hunt, leaving unanswered how the freshman congressman might fare statewide against a Democrat in November.
Cornyns allies argue that nominating Paxton would force Republicans to spend heavily to defend a seat that should be safely in GOP hands, diverting resources from more competitive states. Paxton, however, has turned that argument on its head, accusing Cornyn of draining the partys coffers for his own political survival.
Hes stolen $50+ million from races in NC, ME, MI, and GA and what does he have to show for it? Paxton wrote in a statement on X. Hes stuck in the mid-20s, doesnt even know if hell make the runoff, and is set to lose by huge margins even if he does.
One major figure has so far stayed on the sidelines: President Donald Trump, whose endorsements have repeatedly reshaped Republican primaries across the country. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told the DCNF in January that he has urged Trump to back Cornyn, but those conversations have yet to produce a public endorsement, leaving the race in flux and conservative voters free to decide whether to stick with a seasoned incumbent or embrace a more confrontational standard-bearer.
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