Tax refunds are poised to see a substantial increase in 2026, thanks to the Trump Administration's One Big Beautiful Bill, as highlighted in a CBS News report.
This development is anticipated to bring financial relief to many American families, who often rely on their federal tax refunds as a significant financial boost each year.
As reported by Sean Hannity, a recent analysis by Piper Sandler, a financial services company, projects that the average tax refund will rise by approximately $1,000 per filer in the upcoming filing season. This projection is based on IRS data, which indicated that the average refund for the 2025 filing season was $3,151.
Consequently, the typical refund for 2026 could reach $4,151, with most Americans filing their 2025 returns early in the year and receiving refunds within 21 days of submission.
The anticipated increase in refunds is largely attributed to the tax and spending legislation signed by President Trump in July. This law introduced retroactive tax breaks for 2025, including the elimination of taxes on certain overtime and tipped income, as well as an increase in the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000.
Don Schneider, deputy head of U.S. policy at Piper Sandler and co-author of the report, remarked, "When people go to file, theyll be surprised by really, really large refunds." He further estimated that total tax refunds could amount to approximately $360 billion, a significant jump from the usual $270 billion.
Schneider also pointed out that many Americans have not adjusted their withholding to account for these retroactive tax cuts, partly due to the complexity of calculating their impact. As a result, refunds could be one-third larger than usual, averaging an additional $1,000 per filer. "It could be one of the largest tax refund seasons ever," Schneider noted, underscoring the potential financial windfall awaiting taxpayers in 2026.
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