Democratic Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs is facing a precarious political future, as recent polls suggest she may not secure a second term in office.
The Emerson College poll, released on Friday, indicates a neck-and-neck race between Hobbs and two of the three Republican contenders vying for the governor's seat in the 2026 elections.
According to the Daily Caller, the poll reveals that Republican Representative Andy Biggs, a former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, is the leading GOP candidate likely to challenge Hobbs in the general election. In a hypothetical face-off between Biggs and Hobbs, the incumbent governor garnered 44% support, while Biggs trailed closely with 43%, a difference well within the poll's margin of error.
The survey also revealed that 13% of participants remain undecided.
The same poll showed Republican businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who narrowly lost the primary election for Arizona governor in 2022, polling at 42% support against Hobbs' 43%. Fifteen percent of respondents were undecided in this hypothetical matchup. Both Biggs and Taylor Robson have received endorsements from President Donald Trump for the GOP gubernatorial primary. Biggs also received a notable endorsement from the late Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, who resided in Arizona at the time of his assassination on September 10.
In another hypothetical contest between Hobbs and Republican Arizona Representative David Schweikert, Hobbs held a slightly larger lead with 44% support compared to Schweikerts 40%, just outside of the polls margin of error. Sixteen percent of respondents were undecided.
Biggs emerged as the dominant figure in the GOP primary field with 50% support, significantly outpacing Robson at 17% and Schweikert at 8%. A quarter of those surveyed remained undecided on their preferred candidate for the primary contest.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, stated, Heading into 2026, Rep. Biggs is the early favorite for the Republican Nomination for Governor. Biggs holds 59% support among voters over 60 and 51% among those who backed Trump in 2024.
Biggs, in a statement to the Daily Caller News Foundation, said, The trend lines are clear: Arizona Republican primary voters are rallying behind our campaign because were focusing on the issues that matter and we can beat Katie Hobbs in 2026. Arizonans of all backgrounds are frustrated with our states rising energy costs, anemic job growth, and the challenges of buying an affordable home, which are all problems directly tied to Katie Hobbs progressive policies and partisan vetoes.
He further added, I have the experience and vision to lead our state back to prosperity from Day One as Governor and ensure that every Arizonan can attain the American Dream of a safe neighborhood, a steady job, and an affordable home. Well keep working to share our message in every corner of our state and make sure we fire Katie Hobbs in 2026.
Trump's victory in Arizona in 2024 by more than five percentage points, coupled with Hobbs' current job approval rating sitting underwater at 39% with a disapproval rating of 40%, according to the Emerson College poll, further underscores the challenges Hobbs faces in her re-election bid.
Hobbs' tenure as governor has been marred by controversy since her narrow victory in the 2022 election. Her office faced criticism for threatening Mohave County Supervisors with arrest and prosecution if they failed to certify election results ahead of the deadline, despite the county requesting additional time to finalize results.
A campaign finance scandal in 2024 further tarnished Hobbs' administration. Allegations surfaced that Hobbs accepted a substantial donation from a group home for foster children in exchange for ordering the Department of Child Safety to increase the homes daily pay rate, significantly exceeding the average pay rate for other group homes.
This led to a criminal investigation, with Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope describing it as a pay-to-play scheme. Arizona Senate Republicans widely condemned the scandal, calling it a disgusting abuse of taxpayer dollars.
The Arizona Capitol Times reported in May that Hobbs was not disclosing her donors, despite receiving funds for special interest cases. The states largest public utility company reportedly donated $100,000 to a legal fund to help defend Hobbs against a lawsuit from her 2022 opponent, Kari Lake, whom she defeated by approximately 17,000 votes.
The Emerson College poll, conducted from November 8-10, 2025, surveyed 850 active registered voters and had a 3.3% margin of error. The campaign offices of Hobbs, Robson, and Schweikert did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Login