In a move that could significantly alter the political landscape of California, voters appear poised to pass Proposition 50, a measure that would redraw the state's congressional map.
This development could serve as a significant political triumph for Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who is speculated to be considering a presidential run in 2028. Public polls suggest that the proposition, which would allow a new legislative-drawn map to provide Democrats with several opportunities to gain seats in the U.S. House, is likely to pass in the special election scheduled for November 4.
An Emerson College poll revealed that 57% of likely voters support the measure, a figure that rises to 60% when undecided voters are factored in. A CBS News/YouGov survey indicated even higher support, with 62% voting "yes."
According to Newsmax, the proposition would temporarily shift the control of redistricting in California from the bipartisan independent body, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, to the state legislature. This would allow the legislature to adopt a new congressional map for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 election cycles before the commission resumes authority following the 2030 census.
The proposed map is projected to create up to five new districts that lean towards the Democratic Party.
Democrats argue that this measure highlights Newsom's leadership within his party as it navigates the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential race. Veteran Democratic Party strategist Darry Sragow told The Hill, "Newsom deserves to get credit" for stepping up "on behalf of the party" to increase Democrat House seats.
Newsom, who called the special election earlier this year as a counter to GOP redistricting efforts in states like Texas, has framed the initiative as a defense of democracy and a response to what he perceives as President Donald Trump-led efforts to reshape congressional maps. The official ballot title casts Prop 50 as the "Election Rigging Response Act."
The campaign's fundraising efforts have been substantial. Newsom's "Yes on 50" campaign raised over $100 million by mid-October, with tens of millions still in the bank. Opponents, however, raised only a fraction of that amount and have campaigned on the argument that the move undermines California's long tradition of independent redistricting.
Critics, including former Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, have labeled the measure a partisan power grab. Schwarzenegger called the "temporary" redistricting alteration a "total fantasy" and warned that once legislative control is regained, it may not be relinquished.
If approved, Prop 50 would allow Democrats to bolster their House numbers just ahead of the 2026 midterms, potentially setting the stage for Newsom's presidential ambitions. However, strategists caution that granting the map is just the first step. Sragow noted, "There's a long way to go before he ever gets to hold a party in the new East Wing of the White House."
Hannah Milgrom, a spokesperson for Newsom and the "Yes on 50" campaign, said in a statement, "The Governor is 100% focused on passing Prop 50. Every day Donald Trump remains in power is code red for America and our democracy."
While the passage of Proposition 50 could potentially reshape the political landscape of California and provide a significant boost to the Democratic Party, it also raises questions about the future of independent redistricting in the state. Critics argue that the move undermines a long-standing tradition and warn of the potential consequences of such a shift in power.
As voters prepare to cast their ballots, the outcome of this special election could have far-reaching implications for the future of California politics and beyond.
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