In a recent study conducted by the University of Buckingham's Centre for Heterodox Social Science, it was suggested that the popularity of gender ideology is waning, potentially leading to a decrease in the number of young individuals seeking sex-change procedures.
The study's author, Dr. Eric Kaufmann, based his findings on data from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression's (FIRE) annual campus surveys of undergraduate students, as well as several institution-level surveys of young Americans.
According to The Blaze, Kaufmann's research revealed that "the share of young people not identifying as male or female (typically ticking the non-binary or questioning options) has declined substantially since its 2022-23 peak."
This decline in non-binary identification was evident in the annual survey conducted at the Boston-area Andover Phillips Academy, which showed a drop from over 9% of all respondents identifying as "non-binary" in 2023 to 3% this year. Similar trends were observed in the FIRE survey data and Brown University student survey data.
While the percentage of individuals identifying as homosexual has remained relatively stable, data from the Andover Phillips Academy indicated a resurgence in the number of students identifying as straight. This trend was also reflected in the FIRE data, which showed a rise in straight identification from 68% in 2023 to 77% currently.
The General Social Survey's findings mirrored this trend, with straight identification increasing from 71% in 2022 to 81% last year.
In contrast, the category of self-identified bisexuals, which had seen an increase from 10% to 17% between 2020 and 2023, has now dropped to 12%, according to the Andover Phillips data. The "queer and other" sexual identities category, which had surged from 7% in 2020 to 17% in 2023, has since fallen to 12% of the total. FIRE data supports this decline, showing that the "queer and other" sexuality category has fallen from 15% in 2023 to 8%.
Kaufmann's analysis suggests that "trans and queer are going out of fashion among young people, especially in elite settings," and that the freshman 2028 cohort "was less likely than older students in 2025 to identify as BTQ+." He added, "To the extent that the youngest represent the leading edge of new trends, this suggests that trans, bisexual and queer identities are declining in popularity with each new cohort."
However, Kaufmann clarified that this decline in non-straight identification "does not appear to be the result of a shift to the right, the return of religion, or a rejection of woke culture war attitudes." Instead, he suggested that "the fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend. It happened largely independently of shifts in political beliefs and social media use, though improved mental health played a role."
This shift in gender identification trends is not isolated. Recent polling data from Gallup and the Pew Research Center indicate a growing consensus among Americans in favor of traditional gender norms. For instance, 66% of American adults believe people should be required to list their real sex on government documents, and 69% believe individuals should play on sports teams with members of their own sex. A majority of Americans now also support bans on child sex-change procedures, with such bans currently in effect in a majority of U.S. states.
This rejection of the sex-change regime is not limited to older generations. Data published by the Public Religion Research Institute in May indicates that support for so-called "gender-affirming care" has also plummeted among younger Americans. For instance, 66% of young men ages 18-29 believe that sex-change interventions, including puberty blockers and hormone therapy, should be illegal in most or all cases. This data suggests a growing recognition of the importance of biological sex and a rejection of radical gender ideology, even among younger generations.
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