In a striking revelation, it has been found that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in terms of birth rates, a trend that has only intensified during the era of President Donald Trump.
This information is backed by numerous reports and data from the National Center for Health Statistics and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which highlight a distinct correlation between the political leanings of counties and their fertility rates.
The data suggests a clear pattern: the more a county leans towards the Republican party, the higher its fertility rates. This contrast with Democrat-leaning counties is not static but has been growing stronger over time. As Erika Ahern, an author at CatholicVote and a mother of seven, puts it, "We need a culture that values our children intrinsically."
As reported by The Blaze, an analysis by the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) indicates that support for Trump equates to larger families. For every 10% increase in Trump votes in 2024, there is an expected fertility rate increase of 0.09 in a woman's lifetime.
The IFS further observed that in counties where less than 25% of votes went to Trump, such as D.C., the median fertility rate was 1.31. In stark contrast, in counties where over 75% of votes were for Trump, the median fertility rate was 1.84. While the ideal replacement rate is 2.1 or above, the difference is still significant.
The fertility rate gap has seen a dramatic increase of 85% over the past 12 years. During the 2012 election period, featuring Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, there was an 8% fertility difference between Republican and Democrat counties. According to the IFS, this difference has more than tripled to a 26% difference in 2024.
In counties with populations exceeding 100,000, the "most Democratic" voter turnout is associated with a significantly lower fertility rate than the rest of the country, with a 1.37 birth rate. While moderate Democrat numbers are closer to the American average, the swing is substantial towards the "most Republican" counties, which average a 1.76 birth rate.
Grant Bailey, a research associate at IFS, attributes the Republican fertility advantage to marriage. "Republicans (and conservatives) marry at higher rates, and married adults have much higher fertility rates than do singles," Bailey told Blaze News. He further explained that even many married liberals never have children, which contributes to a wider divide in fertility rates across party lines.
Erika Ahern echoed this sentiment, stating that the plummeting birth rates worldwide could lead to economic and social disaster if not addressed. She emphasized the need for a societal shift in how we value children and family. "Instead of emphasizing the cost and inconvenience of children, we need a culture that values our children intrinsically," Ahern said.
CDC data reveals that in 2023, the top 10 states with the highest birth rates were Republican, while the bottom 10 were Democrat. South Dakota was the only state with a birth rate above 2, at 2.01, followed by Nebraska, North Dakota, Alaska, and Louisiana. Conversely, Vermont had the lowest birth rate at 1.3. Apart from Oregon, which ranks 48th, the Northeast dominated the bottom of the rankings, with Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island all having birth rates of 1.4 or below.
In 2022, Vermont, Wyoming, and Delaware had the fewest births by state, with five states having fewer than 10,000. This can be attributed to population size for all but Vermont, which had the lowest fertility rate according to the CDC's rankings for 2022. Despite having the most births of any state in 2022, approximately 420,000, California did not have the highest fertility rate, ranking as the 11th worst.
Login