The Baltic Sea is currently a stage for a show of maritime strength, with the U.S. Navy's 6th Fleet leading war games involving 50 vessels and thousands of personnel from 17 NATO countries.
The only nation bordering the Baltic Sea not participating in these exercises is Russia, which has been escalating tensions in the region. The BALTOPS exercise in June is designed to ensure the NATO countries can collaboratively defend the area.
U.S. Vice Admiral J.T. Anderson emphasized the significance of these exercises, stating, "This years BALTOPS is more than just an exercise. Its a visible demonstration of our Alliances resolve, adaptability and maritime strength." This statement comes amid growing concerns over Russia's disruptive influence in the Baltic Sea region, as reported by Fox News.
In the past year, several undersea cables have been severed, with suspicion falling on Russia's fleet of "ghost" or "shadow" ships. These are primarily old oil tankers flying under foreign flags, used to evade Western sanctions or trade in military hardware. There are also fears that some of these ships are used for covert intelligence gathering, communication intercepts, or to sabotage undersea infrastructure like internet cables or gas and electricity pipelines.
Tony Lawrence, a naval expert and researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia, highlighted the increasing importance of the shadow fleet to Russia's wartime economy. He stated, "There's a growing importance of the shadow fleet to Russia's wartime economy, and a growing awareness that NATO needs to stop it."
In response to NATO's more aggressive stance against the ghost ships, Russia announced that it would use its navy to escort the fleet through the Baltic Sea. Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hkknen noted this development, saying, "The Russian military presence in the region has always been visible, this is not a new feature. However, what is new is that Russia is protecting its shadow fleet tankers in the narrow pass of the Gulf of Finland."
NATO governments are closely monitoring these developments in the Baltic Sea and preparing for any potential escalation in tensions. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently described the Russian threat as real and serious, stating, "We see a more aggressive Russian approach in the Baltic Sea region."
The Baltic Sea's relatively narrow waterways, combined with international maritime boundaries, valuable fishing grounds, offshore wind farms, busy ferry routes, commercial shipping traffic, military warships, and civilian craft, raise the possibility that a more assertive Russian naval posture could increase the risk of conflict.
Lawrence noted the potential for miscalculations that could escalate tensions, stating, "This is the risk of having more warships floating around the Baltic Sea, there is a potential for miscalculations that could escalate, and risk-reduction mechanisms that used to exist don't work any more because the [NATO and Russian] navies aren't talking to each other anymore."
Despite the escalation, some question whether the Russian navy has the capacity to escort every single ghost fleet ship in the Baltic. Lawrence expressed skepticism, stating, "It's an escalation, of course, of Russian misbehavior in the Baltic Sea. But in practical terms I'm not sure it's going to make that much difference."
The Baltic Sea war games this month serve as a reminder to Russia of NATO's combined naval power in the region. The presence of the American warships, such as the USS Paul Ignatius and the USS Mount Whitney, provides reassurance to some of the smaller navies.
However, the shadow fleet's increasing defiance of NATO navies presents a challenge. Lawrence noted, "That makes things more difficult for other nations because the shadow fleet is learning that it can just ignore what NATO navies do and there's little that NATO can do in that situation, especially if there are Russian ships escorting the shadow fleet."
Despite these challenges, Lawrence believes that NATO nations will not back down. He stated, "But I don't think NATO nations are going to back down. They will still follow and challenge these shadow fleet ships, or even look at other legislation, like requiring proof of insurance, to stop them from transiting the Baltic Sea."
This determination underscores the commitment of NATO nations to maintain security and stability in the Baltic Sea region, despite the escalating tensions.
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