In a shocking turn of events, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated on Wednesday.
The circumstances surrounding his death are still under investigation, but it is evident that his safety was compromised despite being in a supposedly secure location.
Haniyeh was in Iran, a known ally, attending the inauguration of the new President, a significant public event. He had met with the President and Iran's supreme leader just hours before his untimely demise. His close proximity to these powerful figures, however, did not guarantee his safety, much to the dismay of his Iranian hosts. As reported by The Business Insider, Tasnim News, an outlet associated with Iranian authorities, reported that a guided projectile struck Haniyeh's residence in northern Tehran around 2 am.
The perpetrators of the attack remain unknown, but both Hamas and Iran have pointed fingers at Israel, a nation known for similar attacks in the past. Israel has yet to comment on these accusations. According to experts in Middle Eastern affairs and military strategy, Haniyeh's death is a significant and "humiliating" blow to Iran.
Andrew Fox, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, stated that the assassination "sends a very clear message to Iran about Israel's ability to strike inside their borders." Fox further noted that while Haniyeh's tactical significance was limited and he could be easily replaced, his death still carries symbolic weight.
Israel's history of conducting military operations deep within Iran is not a new phenomenon. In August 2020, Israeli operatives assassinated Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, a high-ranking Egyptian member of Al-Qaeda, on the streets of Tehran. In November of the same year, a Mossad team killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian nuclear physicist believed to be the leader of Iran's nuclear program.
Ameneh Mehvar, a Middle East Regional Specialist with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), opined that the recent attack reflects poorly on Iran. She described the killing as "humiliating" and "damaging" to Iran's regional image, indicating a likely infiltration of Iranian intelligence circles by Israel.
Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Global Governance Centre and the Sanctions and Sustainable Peace Hub at the Geneva Graduate Institute, suggested that such an "embarrassing security failure" could damage Iran's credibility among its allies and potentially provoke a counterattack.
Tensions between Israel and Iran have been escalating, with a shadow war of espionage and assassination ongoing for decades. Since Hamas initiated terror attacks on Israel on October 7, Iran-allied groups the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah have targeted Israel, with attacks occasionally extending into neighboring countries and directly involving Iran.
Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute, believes the attack on Haniyeh signifies a "new phase of brinkmanship" in the region. She predicts that the assassination will have far-reaching effects across the region, potentially "galvanizing" other Iran-backed armed proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
This development, she warns, "creates a dangerous conflagration of threats to Israel and Western interests in the region, notably in the Red Sea, where the Houthis will likely escalate their attacks."
Mehvar from ACLED anticipates an Iranian counterattack that is "harsher" but "proportionate," likely executed with the help of allies. Fox, of the Henry Jackson Society, predicts a minor escalation in rocket attacks from Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, followed by a return to the earlier precarious status quo. He cautions that Iran will avoid escalating to a point where the West feels compelled to intervene, as happened during the rocket attacks in April.
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