In a recent appearance on a television show, a guest delivered a resounding message: the American public's perception of President Joe Biden is firmly established, or as she put it, "hardened."
The guest, who was none other than Biden campaign chair Jen OMalley Dillon, stated, "The American people know that the president is older. They see that, they knew that before the debate." She further emphasized, "What people know about the President is pretty hardened."
According to Mediaite, OMalley Dillon's comments were intended to reassure Democrats who are concerned about the viability of Biden's candidacy. However, her remarks may have had the opposite effect. She confidently asserted, "So at the end of the day, as I was talking about the President, the impression of the President is very hardened. And thats really important because people know and are baked in." She concluded, "They know who Joe Biden is."
While OMalley Dillon's assertions are accurate, they may not be as comforting to Democrats as she intended. If she finds solace in the fact that the public's perception of Biden is solidified, it could spell trouble for the Democratic party. The reality is that Biden has been notably unpopular for the past three years. Data aggregated by FiveThirtyEight indicates that Biden's approval rating has been in decline since September 2021. Currently, a mere 38.5% of Americans approve of his performance, a figure that is 17.7 points lower than the proportion of Americans who disapprove. The last time this gap was not in double digits was in May 2023.
The public's hardened perception of Biden, contrary to OMalley Dillon's belief, could be a compelling reason for Democrats to reconsider their candidate and seek a new leader for the upcoming election cycle. Adding to the complexity of the situation is the fact that the public's perception of Biden's opponent, former President Donald Trump, is also well-established. Trump, who has been a dominant political figure for the past decade, is both loved and hated by Americans. Despite this, polling data suggests that voters believe Trump's performance in office was superior to Biden's.
This perception is reflected in Trump's lead in all the states expected to be battlegrounds in the upcoming November elections. He is also challenging Biden in traditionally blue states such as Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. To put things into perspective, Trump is leading Biden by more than 3 points according to FiveThirtyEights aggregation of national surveys. He managed to win the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote by two points and nearly won re-election in 2020 despite losing the popular vote by 4.5 points. In both instances, the polls underestimated his popular vote performance.
If Biden is sincere in his intention to stay in the race, and his team is as misguided as OMalley Dillon's recent comments suggest, Trump may already be planning his return to the White House. The hardened perception of Biden, as OMalley Dillon pointed out, may not be the reassurance Democrats were hoping for, but rather a wake-up call to reconsider their strategy and candidate choice.
Login