In a recent column for The Hill, political consultant and author of "The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat," Douglas Schoen, suggests that a significant event, or an "October Surprise," could be the key to a Biden victory in the forthcoming presidential election.
This comes in the wake of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, leaving the race for the presidency in a precarious balance.
According to Raw Story, Schoen's analysis of the current political landscape reveals a tight race, with Biden slightly trailing in recent polls. He posits that a significant, unexpected event could tip the scales in favor of either candidate. "What, then, could cause a decisive shift in Biden or Trumps favor?" Schoen queries. "Quite simply, the answer is an outside event. Or, as its otherwise known, an October Surprise."
Schoen further suggests that a foreign policy triumph could be the game-changer for Biden. "Biden appears to recognize that an October Surprise, handled well, would be decisive," he notes. He points to Biden's focus on foreign policy during a recent NATO summit press conference as a potential setup for a breakthrough in Asia, Europe, or the Middle East.
Schoen also highlights the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas as a potential area for resolution. "In particular, the war between Israel and Hamas could end, potentially even as part of a larger regional peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia," he states. "That would be considerably more monumental than when Trump orchestrated the Abraham Accords in the final days before the 2020 election."
Schoen cites a recent report by the Washington Post indicating a potential breakthrough in achieving a cease-fire in Gaza. "While this is no guarantee, if Biden were able to secure a stop in the fighting that lasted through the fall, it would be a significant boost for his embattled campaign," he asserts.
However, Biden's presidency has been marked by challenges, reflected in his approval ratings, which have largely remained in the low 40s. The FiveThirtyEight presidential approval tracker shows Biden's approval rating at 42.1% as of August 2023. These figures underscore the difficulties Biden has encountered, including persistent inflation, economic instability, and polarizing political disputes.
In terms of the 2024 presidential election, Biden lags behind Trump in most hypothetical head-to-head matchup surveys. A July 2023 Harvard-Harris poll showed Trump leading Biden by 4 percentage points (46% to 42%) among registered voters. However, Biden has shown strength in some swing state polls, indicating a potentially tight race if both were to secure their party's nomination.
Schoen concludes, "To that end, given that Bidens and Trumps strengths and weaknesses are familiar to voters, it is more likely that a truly pivotal October Surprise comes in the form of a foreign policy development that either drastically helps or harms Biden."
Yet, the international stage is unpredictable. The conflict between Israel and Hamas could escalate, potentially drawing the U.S. into a direct conflict with Iran if it intervenes on behalf of Hezbollah. Similarly, tensions in Asia could escalate if China or North Korea perceives a weakened Biden as less of a deterrent to invading Taiwan or South Korea, respectively. These scenarios underscore the precarious nature of the upcoming election and the potential impact of an "October Surprise."
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