According to RedState, the much-anticipated Suffolk poll, targeting black voters in two pivotal swing states, has been unveiled, and the findings do not bode well for President Joe Biden.
The poll results indicate a significant decline in support for the incumbent compared to the 2020 election.
In Michigan, Biden garners a mere 55 percent of the total black vote. In contrast, former President Donald Trump secures 15 percent, with independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West each attracting 15 percent of the vote. The poll results reveal a shift in black voters' preferences, with a six-point swing towards Trump in Michigan.
While the situation in Pennsylvania is slightly less dire for Biden, it still represents a setback. In the 2020 election, Trump received eight percent of the black vote. The recent poll shows an increase in support for Trump, with 11 percent of black voters now backing him. Moreover, while 76 percent of those surveyed voted for Biden in the previous election, the President's current support hovers in the mid-50s. Even if all undecided voters were to swing in his favor, he would still fall six points short of his previous performance.
The poll results suggest that Biden's policies are the primary factor driving these numbers, with concerns about the President's age and mental sharpness coming in second. This double blow is particularly damaging as neither issue can be rectified before the election. It is too late for any major policy initiatives to be implemented or show results, and Biden cannot reverse the aging process.
Contrary to a common Republican argument that Trump's criminal convictions have garnered sympathy among black voters, the poll numbers do not support this claim. A higher percentage of black voters disagreed with the notion that the former President was being unjustly targeted. The poll suggests that it is policy failures and concerns about Biden's mental acuity that are influencing voters' decisions.
However, the poll does come with a caveat concerning low-propensity voters. While 76 percent of black respondents in the poll claimed to have voted for Biden in 2020, exit polls from that year indicate that the actual figure was 92 percent. This discrepancy suggests that a significant portion of the decline in support for the President is driven by new voters who did not participate in the last election. The key question is whether these voters will turn out this time. If they do not, the poll results may lose their relevance.
This presents a challenge for Trump. While leading in the polls is positive, voter turnout is crucial. High poll numbers are meaningless if the low-propensity voters who are making up the difference do not turn out to vote. Given that it is a presidential election year, turnout is expected to be high, which should favor Trump. However, if this were a mid-term election, the situation would be considerably more precarious.
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