The Biden administration's assertion that an Israeli incursion into Rafah would neither aid in defeating Hamas nor facilitate a hostage release deal has been met with skepticism by several experts who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, stated on Thursday that Israel's potential invasion of Rafah would not result in a "sustainable and enduring defeat" of Hamas. He further suggested that such a move could potentially jeopardize ongoing negotiations for the release of hostages in Gaza. However, experts consulted by the DCNF have disputed this claim, arguing that a military operation is the only viable strategy to pressure Hamas into a hostage deal and ultimately secure victory over the terrorist organization.
"An enduring defeat of Hamas certainly remains the Israeli goal, and we share that goal with them," Kirby stated. "Smashing into Rafah, in [Bidens] view, will not advance that objective, will not get to that sustainable and enduring defeat of Hamas."
However, two high-ranking defense experts and a former senior U.S. official countered Kirby's statement, asserting that military operations are the only means to ensure Hamas's defeat.
"Kirby is wrong," declared Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington-based defense think tank. "Only the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) patient, well-planned and well-executed operation has been successful in smashing Hamas and releasing hostages, to date."
Gabriel Noronha, Executive Director of Polaris National Security and former State Department official, echoed this sentiment, stating, "You cant defeat Hamas with good vibes and nice words. You defeat them on the battlefield through munitions, through kinetic action."
Kirby, along with State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, have suggested that if Israel were to advance into Rafah, it could potentially weaken their position in negotiations to secure a deal for the release of hostages currently held captive by Hamas. For months, Israel has been negotiating with Hamas through international mediators, including the U.S., in an attempt to reach a deal that would result in a temporary ceasefire in the Gaza region in exchange for the release of their hostages.
"We actually think that a Rafah operation would weaken Israels position, both in these talks and writ large," Miller stated on May 9.
Kirby further explained this viewpoint, stating, "If Im Mr. Sinwar, and Im sitting down in my tunnel and Im seeing innocent people falling victim to major significant combat operations in Rafah, then I have less of an incentive to want to come to the negotiating table." Kirby was referring to Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the military branch of Hamas.
However, experts consulted by the DCNF have argued that Hamas is unlikely to be more inclined to expedite the hostage deal if Israel refrains from invading Rafah. They argue that the terrorist group shows little concern for the wellbeing of Palestinians in the region. The IDF has accused Hamas of using civilians as human shields and embedding itself within population centers.
"Its preposterous. It stands in the face of all the evidence weve actually seen in this conversation," Noronha stated. "Theres been nothing that the White House has released that makes room for any kind of justification for what theyre claiming from the podium."
Shoshana Bryen, defense analyst and senior director of The Jewish Policy Center, argued that the absence of military pressure from Israel would make Hamas less motivated to reach a hostage and ceasefire deal. She pointed out that Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal in November after facing intense pressure from Israeli forces, but the deal quickly fell apart in December.
"The only serious negotiating Hamas did was in the very early days when Israels fury was evident and accepted by most of the world," Byren stated. "Hamas leadership saw that it might be defeated on the battlefield, so it permitted a ceasefire and released hostages. Since that time, the Biden administration has worked to constrain Israel up to and including the withholding of arms approved by Congress."
"Hamas isnt stupid. As long as the Biden administration works to constrain Israel, Hamas doesnt have to give anything," Byren added.
The experts also took issue with Kirby's assertion that Israel does not need to advance into Rafah because Hamas has largely been crippled by Israeli forces since Oct. 7.
Noronha likened this to saying, "Oh, we did chemotherapy for a month. We got 80% of the cancer, were good to go. Well just leave now." He added, "Again, it makes no sense."
Bryen further elaborated on this point, stating, "When someone announces that they want to kill you, they train to kill you, they arm to kill you, they teach their children that if the adults dont finish the job in this generation, the children are expected to do it in the next generation. When they say, 100 October 7s, theyre not kidding."
On Tuesday, Israeli forces took control of the Rafah crossing bordering Egypt, citing it as a crucial chokepoint to halt the flow of weapons into Gaza, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. The IDF is advancing further into the eastern corridors of Rafah, but has not yet entered Rafah city, where the majority of the more than one million refugees are located, according to The Associated Press.
During a CNN interview on Wednesday, Biden stated that the administration has not seen Israel cross a line in Rafah, but warned of potential consequences, including the cessation of military aid, if Israel were to launch a full-scale invasion.
"If Israel had listened to the White House [since the war began], 18 Hamas terrorist battalions would still be standing, dozens of senior Hamas terrorist leaders would still be alive directing terror operations, dozens of Israeli and foreign hostages would still be languishing in the helm of Hamas captivity and Hamas would still be in charge planning the next October 7," Dubowitz stated. "The Biden administrations pressure on Israel has only prolonged the war and the suffering on both sides."
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