The Democratic Party's longstanding dominance among two key demographics - African Americans and Hispanics - has seen a significant decline in recent months, as revealed by recent polling data released on Wednesday.
In 2022, 66% of African American adults identified themselves as Democrats or leaned towards the Democratic Party, while 19% claimed affiliation with the Republicans or leaned towards the Republican Party, according to the Gallup survey. This 47-percentage-point gap is the narrowest in at least a quarter of a century, marking a 19-point drop from 2020 when 77% of African American adults identified as Democrats and a mere 19% as Republicans.
A parallel trend is observed among Hispanics, with 47% identifying as Democrats and 35% as Republicans. This 12-point gap is a significant decrease from 2021 when the difference was 31 percentage points, with 57% of Hispanics identifying as Democrats and 26% as Republicans.
Conversely, Republicans have consistently held a double-digit lead among white voters since 2013. In 2023, 54% of white voters identified as Republicans or leaned towards the GOP, while 38% identified as Democrats or leaned towards the Democratic Party.
The GOP also holds a substantial lead among male voters, with 52% identifying as Republicans or leaning towards the GOP, compared to 37% who align with the Democrats. The Democratic Party holds a smaller lead among female voters (49% to 40%), a decrease from the 17-point advantage (54% to 37%) they held in 2021.
Overall, 45% of US adults identify as Republicans, while 43% identify as Democrats, a reversal from 2020 when 48% of Americans identified as Democrats and 43% as Republicans.
However, Democrats still hold significant leads among adults with postgraduate degrees (29 percentage points), urban residents (25 percentage points), and those who do not affiliate with any religion (30 percentage points).
On the other hand, Republicans have substantial leads among weekly church attendees (26 percentage points), rural voters (25 percentage points), Protestant or non-Catholic Christians (19 percentage points), and Southerners (14 percentage points).
The Gallup survey, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point, sampled 12,145 adults nationwide throughout 2023. For subgroups, the poll had a margin of error generally ranging between plus or minus 2 and 4 percentage points.
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