According to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management, there is a possibility that President Joe Biden may drop out of the 2024 presidential race.
This prediction was included in Cembalest's 2024 "Pillow Talk" outlook, which features ten surprising predictions for the year.
The specific prediction states that "President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee." Cembalest explains that Biden's low approval rating, despite a 10% job creation rate since his inauguration, could be a contributing factor to this potential decision.
Cembalest acknowledges that he typically does not make these types of predictions. However, he included it in this year's report as a tribute to Market Strategist Bryon Wein, who passed away in 2023 at the age of 90. Cembalest emphasizes that the purpose of these predictions is not to keep score on their accuracy, but rather to encourage thinking outside of the consensus in the industry.
In addition to the prediction about Biden, Cembalest's outlook includes other surprising forecasts for 2024. These include expectations that the US dollar will remain stable, a backlash against driverless cars will emerge, Argentine dollarization will fail if implemented, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue without a ceasefire.
It is important to note that recent surveys, as of January 10, show former President Donald Trump leading Biden by 1.2 points according to RealClearPolling's averages. This adds an interesting context to Cembalest's prediction about Biden potentially dropping out of the race.
Login