Virginia Democrats are facing an unexpected challenge as they scramble to fill the shoes of retiring Rep Jennifer Wexton.
Wexton, who recently announced her retirement due to progressive supranuclear palsy, leaves behind a crucial seat that could determine control of Congress.
While President Joe Biden carried the district by a significant margin in 2020, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin came within 2 points of winning in 2021, making it a key battleground for Democrats in their quest to regain the House majority in 2024.
Although Virginia Democrats had not initially planned to replace Wexton, several candidates are now rumored to be interested in running for her seat. According to anonymous sources familiar with the race, at least five different Democrats are considering entering the race.
The district Wexton represents is emblematic of the shifting political landscape in Virginia, a state that has rapidly turned blue but remains competitive. Wexton's victory in 2018 marked the first time the district had been under Democratic control since 1980, and it was part of the nationwide blue wave that began to tip suburban areas toward the Democratic Party during Donald Trump's presidency.
Her defeat of two-term Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock, a former ally of President George W. Bush who has since become a vocal Trump critic, solidified her position as a rising star in the party.
State Del. Suhas Subramanyam, who is running for state Senate in a district that overlaps with Wexton's congressional seat, praised her ability to make winning elections look easy. He believes that the upcoming November elections will provide valuable insight into the competitiveness of the district and serve as an indicator for the 2024 race.
The state legislative elections this fall will be closely watched by candidates considering a run for Wexton's seat, including Subramanyam and State Del. Dan Helmer. County supervisors are also rumored to be eyeing the seat, as is State Del. David Reid.
However, the interest from multiple Democrats should not be mistaken for complacency. Whoever succeeds Wexton will be following in the footsteps of a political heavyweight. Wexton won the largely suburban district with 53 percent of the vote in 2022 and was considered a top contender for the Democratic nominee for governor in 2025, along with fellow Democratic Reps. Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer McClellan.
While President Biden easily won the district, which is just miles from Washington, D.C., it has taken on new significance as the Republican Party shifts its messaging to appeal to suburban voters who began to drift away during the Trump era.
Virginia's 10th District encompasses Rappahannock County, Fauquier County, and the now-infamous Loudoun County, which has become a battleground in the culture wars surrounding schools. Gov. Glenn Youngkin's successful campaign in 2021 was partly attributed to his outreach to voters in this diverse suburban community, presenting himself as a different kind of Republican in the post-Trump era.
As for the Republican Party, there has been no indication yet of who will jump into the race to replace Wexton. Hung Cao, who is currently running for the Republican nomination for Senate but previously ran against Wexton, is a potential candidate. However, Cao has not commented on whether he will switch races. John Smith of the Loudoun County Republican Committee emphasized that the party has been focused on the upcoming elections and the changing dynamics in Northern Virginia. Smith highlighted the party's efforts to be more inclusive and reach out to different communities.
The race to replace Rep. Jennifer Wexton in Virginia's 10th District is shaping up to be a critical battle for control of Congress. Democrats are determined to hold onto the seat, which has become a symbol of the party's success in flipping traditionally Republican districts.
Meanwhile, Republicans are eager to regain ground in the suburban areas that have become increasingly competitive. With multiple Democrats considering a run and the Republican field yet to take shape, the November elections will provide valuable insights into the district's political landscape and set the stage for the 2024 race.
Login