The Republican presidential race has taken an unexpected turn as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley experiences a surge in popularity in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
This development has resulted in a tie with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis following the first Republican primary debate.
This information was revealed in a polling memo by Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for former President Donald Trumps super PAC MAGA Inc., which was obtained by Axios. Fabrizio stated in the memo, President Trump continues to dominate these first two contests with his support remaining statistically unchanged from pre-debate public polling in these states.
While Trump's dominance remains unchallenged, the memo indicates that the Republican primary season is witnessing new dynamics. Fabrizio, who also serves as a chief pollster for The Wall Street Journal, noted a clear pattern in the latest polls among likely Republican voters. He wrote, DeSantis has flatlined, Haley has surged, and Ramaswamy is seen as last weeks debate winner.
Fabrizio further commented, The much hoped-for DeSantis bounce was really a dead cat bounce in that it doesnt exist. His analysis underscores Haley's momentum and suggests a deliberate narrative shift from Trump vs. DeSantis to Trump vs. everyone else.
Public Opinion Strategies, a firm polling for DeSantis, released an internal Iowa poll that corroborates Fabrizios findings, showing Haley's post-debate rise. However, their report positions DeSantis closer to Trump in Iowa, trailing by 20 points, compared to Fabrizios 26-point gap.
Fabrizio's poll shows Trump leading in Iowa with 44%, followed by DeSantis at 18%, Haley at 10%, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Senator Tim Scott (R-S.C.) both at 7%. In New Hampshire, Trump was at 48%, DeSantis at 11%, with Haley and Ramaswamy tied at 9%.
These latest poll results provide fresh insights into the Republican primary, which is evolving into a multi-candidate contest for second place to Trump. With Haley's rise in early voting states, DeSantis now faces competition from multiple candidates, rather than being the sole alternative to Trump, as per Fabrizio's analysis.
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