The upcoming congressional elections in California in 2024 are expected to have significant implications for the GOP's control of the House and the future of Speaker Kevin McCarthy's leadership position.
According to several GOP operatives in the state, the Republican Party's success in securing seats in California over the past two cycles has played a crucial role in their control of the House and McCarthy's speakership. As a result, the GOP is placing great importance on maintaining and expanding their congressional seats in California in the next election.
California state Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher emphasized the significance of California in the GOP's path to the majority in the House. He stated, "There's no dispute the road to the majority runs through California." Gallagher also praised Speaker McCarthy for his support in positioning Republican candidates for success in congressional races.
In the 2022 midterms, while the anticipated "red wave" did not materialize, California Republicans were able to retain all 11 incumbent seats and gain one additional seat with Rep. John Duarte. This marked a total of five pick-ups over the past two cycles. McCarthy himself acknowledged the importance of California's wins in securing the House majority, stating, "We have our entire majority because we won in California."
Republican strategist Mike Vallante echoed McCarthy's sentiment, predicting a similar scenario in the 2024 elections. He stated, "In 2022, the Republican wave never occurred, but the Republican wins were waiting in California that made him Speaker. The same scenario is likely in 2024."
However, not all GOP operatives believe that the Republicans' control of the House is solely dependent on the performance of California's members in the 2024 elections. Sal Russo, a prominent GOP consultant, argued that the outcome of New York's seats could be more decisive in determining the majority. Russo expressed confidence in McCarthy's speakership status, regardless of the California members' ability to retain their seats.
California Republican Party Chairwoman Jessica Patterson acknowledged the role of California Republicans in delivering seats for the House majority and supporting McCarthy's bid for speakership. She expressed optimism about the party's ability to continue this success in 2024.
Republican strategists in California attribute their recent victories to their recruitment of diverse candidates in swing districts. They believe that finding the right candidate who resonates with the district's demographics and running effective campaigns on the ground has been key to their success.
The GOP sees an opportunity to gain congressional seats in three vulnerable Democrat-held districts in California. Democratic Reps. Josh Harder, Mike Levin, and Katie Porter's open seat are all targeted by the Republicans. The party has already endorsed candidates for these swing districts, including Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln and former state Assembly Republican Leader Scott Baugh.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has identified seven Republican-held seats in California as vulnerable in the 2024 elections. Along with Duarte, Republican Reps. Kevin Kiley, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Young Kim, Ken Calvert, and Michelle Steel are on the DCCC's target list. GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa, whose seat is not being targeted, emphasized the importance of winning more seats in California to support McCarthy's speakership.
Republican strategists Russo and Vallante acknowledged that there are other factors at play in these congressional races, including the presidential race and potential changes in the candidates. They emphasized the need for candidates to focus on their campaigns and not rely solely on coattails.
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