In the aftermath of the initial Republican debate, former President Donald Trump's pollsters have identified Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy as emerging contenders in the GOP primary.
Meanwhile, they suggest that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' campaign has stagnated.
A confidential memorandum, authored by GOP pollsters Tony Fabrizio, David Lee, and Travis Tunis, was circulated among Republican donors. The document, a copy of which was procured by DailyMail.com, posits that Trump continues to hold sway in both Iowa and New Hampshire. However, it also indicates a growing competition for the second position following the debate in Milwaukee.
The pollsters argue that Haley's debate performance has given her campaign a boost, while Ramaswamy emerged as the clear victor of the debate. "The much hoped for DeSantis "bounce" was really a "dead cat bounce" in that it doesn't exist," the pollsters stated, attributing this to the voters' perception that DeSantis did not win the debate. The memo further notes, "With Haley's surge, DeSantis finds himself with another challenger for a distant second place besides Ramaswamy - Nikki Haley."
The confidential memo was initially reported by Axios. In Iowa, the first state to hold caucuses, the pollsters found that Trump retained the support of 44 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers following the first GOP debate, which he did not attend. DeSantis held onto second place with 18 percent support, while Haley received 10 percent. Ramaswamy and Senator Tim Scott were tied, each receiving 7 percent support.
In New Hampshire, the first state to hold a GOP primary, Trump garnered support from 48 percent of likely voters. The pollsters suggest that DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy are statistically tied, with DeSantis at 11 percent and Haley and Ramaswamy both at 9 percent. The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 4.38 percent.
"Despite the continued wishful thinking of some, Trump remains firmly in control in both states," the pollsters wrote. "His lead is unchanged and commitment to voting for him is rock-solid." They found that 72 percent of Trump voters in Iowa and 81 percent in New Hampshire are committed to him. In contrast, only 43 percent of DeSantis supporters in Iowa and 28 percent in New Hampshire said they would vote for him regardless. Haley's committed supporters were even fewer, at 17 percent in Iowa and 9 percent in New Hampshire.
In both states, 80 percent of Republicans said they had heard about the debate. Ramaswamy was considered the clear winner in both states, with 28 percent of likely Republican voters in Iowa and 34 percent in New Hampshire holding this view. In Iowa, Haley narrowly outperformed DeSantis for second place in debate performance, 19 to 18 percent, within the poll's margin of error. In New Hampshire, Haley and DeSantis were tied at 16 percent.
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