Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) is currently leading in early polling against a growing list of Republican contenders, despite not having officially declared his intention to run for a second term in 2024.
According to a recent survey conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, approximately 30% of Utah voters would cast their vote for Romney in a hypothetical contest against other potential candidates. This places him significantly ahead of Attorney General Sean Reyes, who garnered 13% support. However, a substantial 39% of voters remain undecided.
Romney, who has yet to confirm his plans for the 2024 election, filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission in April, enabling him to commence fundraising activities. Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs has already declared his intention to challenge Romney, with several other potential candidates expected to join the race.
Brad Wilson, Speaker of the Utah House, is also likely to contend for the Senate seat. Earlier this year, he established an exploratory committee and subsequently reported a record-breaking fundraising total for a GOP Senate candidate in their initial three months. Wilson informed the Washington Examiner that he plans to announce his decision in the fall.
In the poll, Wilson and Staggs received 5% and 3% support respectively, placing both potential candidates in single digits as they attempt to surpass Romney.
Should he decide to run for another term, Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, would enjoy the benefits of incumbency. However, his willingness to diverge from his party on several issues, particularly those concerning former President Donald Trump, has drawn criticism. Notably, Romney is the only Republican senator to vote for Trump's impeachment twice. Nevertheless, anti-Trump sentiment among conservatives in Utah is more pronounced than in other red states, which could bolster his position.
Utah voters are divided on whether Romney should seek another term, with 33% in favor and 54% opposed, according to the poll. An additional 12% were uncertain.
Romney has expressed optimism about his chances if he chooses to run. "I'll make that assessment over the coming months, and sometime in the spring or summer, I'll make that decision," Romney told reporters in February. "I'm confident that I would win if I decide to run. I'll have the resources, and I believe the people of Utah would be with me."
If Romney decides against running, the primary field would undergo a significant shift as voters contemplate their preferred successor to the one-term incumbent. Without Romney in the race, Reyes would receive 16% support, while 8% would back Lt. Gov. Diedre Henderson. A further 55% would remain undecided.
The Noble Predictive Insights poll, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, surveyed 598 registered Utah voters from July 7 to 18.
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