Eric Hafner, a convicted felon serving a 20-year sentence nearly 3,000 miles from Juneau, is nonetheless on the ballot to challenge Alaskas lone Republican congressman, Rep.
Nicholas Begich, in a race that could once again expose the perils of ranked-choice voting for conservatives.
According to Gateway Pundit, the 35-year-old Democrat is incarcerated at the federal prison in Otisville, New York, yet his name still appears as the only official Democrat option in Alaskas House contest. In a midterm climate that typically punishes the presidents party, his candidacy would ordinarily be a political footnotewere it not for a voting system that can turn fringe candidates into kingmakers.
Hafner is not merely controversial; he is dangerous by any reasonable standard. According to U.S. Attorney Philip Sellinger, Hafner repeatedly threatened elected representatives, judges, law enforcement officers, and private citizens.
He further victimized these public officials, private citizens, and the public generally by calling in numerous false bomb threats to a courthouse, a police department, law firms, businesses, and an elected officials office, Sellinger said. Reporting by The Blue Alaskan revealed that in 2016, Inmate #00932-005 told a police department that the officer who arrested him deserves to get shot, that he knew where the officer lived, and that the officers minor child would get his head bashed in.
Despite this record, Hafner has already drawn a measurableif smallshare of support from Alaska voters. Data from Ballotpedia suggests that just 3.8 percent of voters filled in the bubble next to this mans name.
It is unclear whether these voters knew Hafners background or simply reacted to the D beside his name in a reflexive partisan gesture. The ballot may have been a protest vote or a knee-jerk reaction to the D next to his name.
Whatever the motive, Hafners presence on the ballot now threatens to complicate the path for Bill Hill, the Democrat-backed independent trying to unseat Begich. Regardless, Hafner poses a real danger to Bill Hill, the Democrat-backed independent seeking to unseat Begich.
Even national Democrats are sounding the alarm about the optics and the math. Politico reported, Hafner may be behind bars, but Dems fear he could lock up enough votes to help Begich hold his seat.
To blunt that risk, a Washington-based Democrat operation has stepped in with damage control. To counter this, Wheel Dog, the D.C. Super PAC backing Hill, launched an ad highlighting Hafners unusual place of residence.
The spot leaves little doubt about its target, mocking the party label that would normally be an asset in a blue-leaning primary. The D by his name? Yeah, it stands for Doing Time, the ad says.
The ad closes by directing left-leaning voters toward Hill instead, with a final frame that reads, Alaska Democrats Vote Bill Hill. The message is striking, given that despite clear backing from a Democrat-funded Super PAC, Hill refuses to align himself with either party.
Pressed on whether he would effectively side with Democrats in Congress, Hill chose ambiguity over clarity. When Alaskas News Source suggested that he would caucus for the Democrats, Hill responded, I guess well find out when the election comes.
Also on the ballot is Libertarian Jim McDermott, who has attracted even less support than the imprisoned Democrat. Also in the race is Libertarian Jim McDermott; Ballotpedia recorded that he received even fewer votes than Hafner.
For all the noise, the real contest remains a showdown between Begich and Hill, with the others acting as potential spoilers rather than serious contenders. At the end of the day, this race is about Hill and Begich.
Neither Hafner nor McDermott is likely to prevail outright, but under Alaskas new voting rules, they do not need to win to shape the outcome. Neither Hafner nor McDermott will likely win; however, because Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, they can seriously affect Hills chances of beating Begich.
According to Alaskans for Better Elections, Ranked Choice Voting allows voters to rank candidates on the ballot in order of preference: first, second, third, and fourth. In this system, if a candidate gets over 50 percent of first-choice votes, they win immediately; otherwise, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and those votes transfer to each voters next preference, a process that repeats until one candidate holds a majority.
That structure gives outsized influence to second- and third-choice rankings, turning marginal candidates into potential power brokers. This means second-place and third-place votes carry significant weight; if all Republicans mark Hafner as their second choice, transferred preferences could consolidate behind Begich instead of Hill.
For conservatives wary of engineered electoral systems, the Alaska race is a case study in how ranked-choice voting can distort straightforward contests and empower fringe figures. With ranked-choice voting, Hafner may end up casting the deciding vote in an Alaska House race thousands of miles away, even as he remains locked in a New York prison cell.
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