Less than 100 days before Texans head to the polls, a series of new surveys suggests that the U.S. Senate race in the Lone Star State is unexpectedly competitive, with a Democrat holding a narrow edge over a high-profile Republican incumbent in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in more than six decades.
According to WND, State Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, has edged ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by at least two points in multiple recent polls, though the contest remains within the margin of error and therefore statistically tied. A new Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll places Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45%, with 6% of voters still undecided and 2% backing Libertarian candidate Ted Brown.
The TSU survey, conducted among 1,200 likely Texas voters between July 27 and 30, carries a margin of error of 2.83%, underscoring how fluid the race remains. Talarico currently leads among women, Hispanic, and Black voters, while Paxton maintains an advantage with white and male voters, a familiar partisan and demographic split in recent Texas elections.
Both candidates enter the final stretch with significant baggage in the court of public opinion, though Paxtons negatives are notably higher. Talaricos favorable and unfavorable ratings are nearly even at 46% and 47%, respectively, while Paxtons unfavorable rating stands at 57%, well above his 39% favorable rating.
A separate Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research Fox News Poll shows a slightly larger gap, with Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48%. That poll, conducted among 1,006 registered Texas voters from July 23 to 27 with a 3-point margin of error, also included an oversample of registered Hispanic voters randomly drawn from a statewide voter file, reflecting Democrats reliance on minority turnout to offset Republican strength among white voters.
Voters in the Fox News survey identified inflation and high prices as their top concern, followed closely by immigration and border security. Those priorities should, in theory, favor Republicans, who have consistently campaigned on economic restraint, energy independence, and strong border enforcement, yet the current numbers suggest Paxton has not fully capitalized on those issues.
Last month, a Texas Public Opinion Research poll also showed Talarico ahead, 45% to 40%, reinforcing the narrative of a tight but competitive race. Talaricos lead is driven by a strong performance on affordability, which 44% of voters rank as their top priority in this election, TPOR states, highlighting how Democrats are attempting to reframe economic anxiety in their favor despite the inflationary legacy of recent federal spending.
The same TPOR analysis notes, Voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans over Paxton by 7 points, and also trust Talarico to lower costs and improve Texans financial situations over Paxton by a 9-point margin. Renters and non-college voters trust Talarico on these issues by even wider margins, a warning sign for Republicans if they fail to sharpen their economic message beyond national talking points.
TPOR further reports that Talarico is leading among Black and Hispanic voters, enjoys a 20-point advantage with Independents, and holds a 34-point lead with moderates. The only demographic bloc where Paxton clearly dominates in that poll is white voters, underscoring the GOPs continued strength with its traditional base but also its vulnerability if turnout among minorities and suburban moderates surges.
The TPOR survey, conducted among 1,048 likely Texas voters from July 15 to 17, has a margin of error of 3.4%, again placing the race within statistical uncertainty. A New York Times/Siena poll, meanwhile, finds Talarico and Paxton deadlocked at 47% each, reinforcing the picture of a deeply polarized electorate and a race that could hinge on turnout and late-breaking events.
The stakes are historically significant for Democrats, who have not held this Senate seat since Lyndon B. Johnson, as previously reported by The Center Square. Johnson won the seat in 1948, resigned in 1961 to become vice president, and his appointed successor lost to Republican John Tower that same year, with Republican Phil Gramm and then John Cornyn later solidifying GOP control until Paxton defeated Cornyn in the May Republican runoff.
Despite the Senate drama, the broader statewide landscape still tilts Republican, according to the TSU poll. In the lieutenant governors race, incumbent Republican Dan Patrick leads state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, D-Austin, 46% to 39%, with 3% backing Libertarian Anthony Cristo and 12% undecided, suggesting room for movement but a clear GOP advantage.
The attorney generals race, separate from Paxtons Senate bid, also favors Republicans, with state Sen. Mayes Middleton, R-Galveston, leading state Sen. Nathan Johnson, D-Dallas, 46% to 41%. Three percent support Libertarian Tom Oxford and 10% remain undecided, numbers that indicate conservatives still hold the upper hand in law-and-order contests despite relentless attacks on Republican legal officials from the left.
Down the ballot, Republicans continue to post leads in key statewide offices that shape Texas economic and regulatory environment. In the race for Texas Land Commissioner, incumbent Republican Dawn Buckingham leads Democrat Benjamin Flores 45% to 40%, with 2% backing Libertarian Neill Snider and 13% undecided, while in the Texas Comptroller race, Republican Don Huffines is ahead of state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt, D-Austin, 46% to 39%, with 2% supporting Libertarian V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza and 13% undecided.
The Texas Railroad Commission race, critical for the states vital oil and gas sector, also leans Republican, with Bo French leading state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, D-Austin, 45% to 41%. Two percent support Libertarian Arthur DiBianca and 13% remain undecided, a configuration that, if it holds, would preserve a regulatory climate generally favorable to energy producers and free-market development.
Perhaps the most surprising development for conservatives is the governors race, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, finds himself in a much tighter contest than many expected. According to new polls, Abbott is nearly statistically tied with state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, D-Austin, The Center Square reported, a sign that Democrats are pouring resources into what has long been considered a reliably red office.
Abbott has responded by going on offense, launching a $10 million statewide television ad on Thursday titled Whats at Stake, which contrasts his record with Democrats socialist policies. For Republicans, the message is clear: while Texas remains structurally conservative, complacency could prove costly, and the coming weeks will test whether the states longstanding preference for limited government, secure borders, and free-market economics can withstand an energized Democratic challenge.
Login