Californias high-stakes jungle primary reaches its decisive moment on Tuesday, with Republicans eyeing a rare opportunity to break the Democrats long-running stranglehold on statewide power.
According to RedState, Republican Steve Hilton remains firmly in contention for a spot on the November ballot, even as former Biden Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra sits atop the crowded field. The contest for the crucial second runoff position, however, is effectively a dead heat, underscoring how volatile the race has become in its final hours.
The last Emerson College survey before Election Day places Becerra at 28 percent, with billionaire former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer at 22 percent and Hilton at 21 percent, leaving Steyer and Hilton locked in a statistical tie for second within the polls margin of error. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco holds 12 percent, while Democrats Katie Porter and Matt Mahan trail badly at 5 percent apiece.
Becerras ascent has been less a grassroots surge than a product of party engineering, as Democratic officials intervened aggressively to clear his path. He languished at just 5 percent in March, but his numbers climbed after party leaders muscled lower-tier Democrats out of the race and the field was further shaken by Congressman Eric Swalwells dramatic withdrawal.
Since mid-May, Becerra has gained nine points, Steyer five, and Hilton four, reflecting a late consolidation on the left and steady, organic growth on the right. Emerson also found that 88 percent of Hiltons supporters say they will "definitely" back him, the highest level of voter commitment in the field, matched only by Bianco.
That intensity matters in a low-turnout primary, particularly when one conservative candidate is poised to inherit support from another. "If Chad Bianco's support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit."
Biancos 12 percent bloc represents a potential lifeline for Hilton if even a modest share of those voters break his way on Tuesday. Steyer, by contrast, is relying on younger and more progressive voters to show up, a notoriously unreliable coalition when it comes to actual Election Day turnout.
The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, the largest survey of the race with more than 5,000 likely voters, shows Becerra at 25 percent, Hilton at 21 percent, and Steyer at 19 percent, again confirming a tight three-way struggle for the second slot. Among voters who have already cast ballots, Hilton actually leads with 29 percent, a sign that Republicans are not only engaged but voting early and decisively for him.
Regionally, Hilton is ahead in Orange County, the Central Valley, and the North Coast/Sierra, areas that have long been more receptive to center-right messages on crime, taxes, and regulation. Becerra is piling up votes in deep-blue Los Angeles, Steyer is competitive in the Bay Area, and Bianco dominates in the Inland Empire, his home base.
A mid-May Public Policy Institute of California poll had Hilton within three points of Becerra, 20 percent to 23 percent, before Democrats completed their late-stage consolidation. Given the dramatic reshuffling since then, those earlier figures likely represent a floor rather than a ceiling for Hiltons potential performance on Tuesday.
Democrats have spent much of the year mired in turmoil of their own making, as an overstuffed field raised the real possibility of an all-Republican November runoff. Party bosses, alarmed at that prospect, moved in March to shove weaker candidates aside in an effort to salvage a unified front.
Then, in April, Congressman Eric Swalwell, at that point a frontrunner, abruptly resigned from Congress and exited the race after sexual assault allegations emerged. The remaining Democratic vote effectively defaulted to Becerra, who "didn't build a coalition so much as inherit one by process of elimination," while Republicans remained largely consolidated behind Hilton and Bianco.
Turnout patterns are giving the GOP another edge, with more than 2.8 million ballots returned before the final weekend and Republican return rates outpacing Democrats by nearly five points, 16.9 percent to 12.1 percent. In a contest this tight, that kind of structural advantage can be decisive, especially when paired with a motivated conservative base.
If Hilton secures second place, Californias governors race will become a rare general election in which a Republican has a plausible path in a state dominated by one-party rule for more than a decade. As California voters head to the polls on June 2, all eyes will be on that second-place finish and whether a disciplined conservative campaign can finally crack the Democrats monopoly on statewide power.
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