Gavin Newsoms tenure as governor of California has coincided with the states emergence as a national leader in nearly every category conservatives would regard as a warning sign rather than a badge of honor.
Over seven years, two months, and 26 days of Newsoms governorship, California has climbed to the top of the charts in homelessness, poverty, illegal immigrant population, benefits for illegal immigrants, budget deficit, income tax, gas tax, gas prices, and domestic outmigration, while also ranking near the top in housing costs, retail crime, adult illiteracy, failing schools, and anti-business regulation, according to The Gateway Pundit. The picture that emerges is not of a California miracle, but of a state where progressive governance has produced record spending, record regulation, and record decline in basic quality-of-life indicators.
On homelessness, the numbers are not merely bad; they are catastrophic. Of the nations 771,500 people experiencing homelessness in 2024, over 187,000, roughly 24%, were in California, with two in three unsheltered, accounting for nearly half the countrys unsheltered population.
More than one in every three people in the United States experiencing homelessness as an individual was found in California, and the state accounted for half of all individuals counted in unsheltered locations. Over the longer period from 2007 to 2023, the largest absolute increase in homelessness occurred in California, with 44,964 more people, a 41% rise.
Newsoms administration touts a slowing growth rate, and there is some basis for that. In 2024, while homelessness increased nationally by over 18%, California limited its overall increase to just 3%.
However, the state remains by far the national leader in total numbers, and although the number of homeless in California is growing at a slower rate, it continues to grow. For a state that spends tens of billions on social programs and housing initiatives, the fact that the crisis is merely worsening more slowly is hardly a policy triumph.
Furthermore, a state auditor found that California has failed to consistently track spending and outcomes across its more than 30 homelessness programs, and the audit was able to determine cost-effectiveness for only 2 of them. In other words, taxpayers are funding a sprawling bureaucracy of homelessness initiatives with almost no meaningful accountability for results.
The poverty picture is equally damning for a state that progressives routinely hold up as a model of equity and social justice. Californias poverty rate, at 17.7%, continued to be the highest in the United States in 2024, tied with Louisiana, with no tangible improvement from 2023.
About 7 million state residents lacked the resources to meet basic needs. This figure comes from the Census Bureaus Supplemental Poverty Measure, which adjusts for cost of living, particularly housing.
California is staggeringly wealthy, home to major agricultural businesses and influential global tech companies with an economy larger than many nations, yet 7 million Californians live in poverty, a number roughly equivalent to the combined populations of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, and San Francisco. Child poverty more than doubled since 2021, rising from 7.5% to 18.6% in 2024.
For conservatives, these figures underscore a central point: redistributive policies, heavy regulation, and expansive welfare systems do not automatically translate into prosperity for the poor. Instead, they often drive up costs, especially housing and energy, while entrenching bureaucracies that consume resources without solving underlying problems.
Nowhere is the clash between progressive ideology and fiscal reality more visible than in Californias approach to illegal immigration. California leads the nation with approximately 2.3 million illegal aliens, and has built the most expansive benefits system for them of any state in the country, offering drivers licenses, college scholarships, low-income tax credits, pandemic cash payments, and full Medi-Cal health coverage.
By 2024, all illegal immigrants meeting income requirements were enrolled in Medi-Cal at a cost of $8.5 billion annually, $2.7 billion above projections. The total annual cost of benefits and services to the illegal immigrant population, estimated at 3.23 million when U.S.-born dependents are included, runs approximately $22.8 billion per year, a figure that nearly mirrors the states projected budget deficit, according to FAIR.
This is not a coincidence; it is a policy choice. Californias political leadership has prioritized expansive benefits for those in the country illegally while its own citizens face soaring costs, deteriorating public safety, and failing schools.
The fiscal consequences of this and other progressive priorities are now impossible to ignore. Californias fiscal deterioration under Newsom has been severe. In January 2024, Newsoms office projected a $38 billion deficit for fiscal year 202425, while the nonpartisan Legislative Analysts Office projected $68 billion, revised to $73 billion, making it the largest state budget deficit in the country.
For the fourth year in a row, the LAO and the administration are forecasting multiyear budget shortfalls, with operating deficits of $27 billion in 202728, $22 billion in 202829, and $23 billion in 202930. State Sen. Roger Niello attributed the structural deficit to Democrats unstoppable spending problems.
That assessment aligns with a broader conservative critique: Californias ruling Democrats have treated boom-time revenues as permanent, locked in massive spending commitments, and then doubled down on costly social and climate programs even as taxpayers and businesses flee. The result is a structurally unbalanced budget in a state that already imposes some of the highest taxes in America.
On income taxes, California is in a league of its own. Top marginal rates span from 2.5% in Arizona and North Dakota to 13.3% in California, which also imposes a 1.1% payroll tax on wage income, bringing the all-in top rate to 14.4%.
This punishing tax burden falls most heavily on high earners and entrepreneurs, the very people who are most mobile and most capable of relocating to friendlier jurisdictions. When combined with high sales taxes, property taxes in many counties, and a dense web of fees and regulations, Californias tax regime sends a clear message: success will be heavily penalized.
The same pattern holds at the pump, where environmental zeal and regulatory layering have made Californias gas prices the highest in the nation. California retains its top spot as the state with the most expensive gas in the nation, with a gallon of gas costing $5.89 as of early April 2026, beating out Hawaii at $5.46.
California levies the highest total state gas tax in the nation at 70.9 cents per gallon, followed by Illinois and Washington. Beyond the base excise tax of about 61 cents, California-specific costs, including a special fuel blend, roughly 23 cents from cap-and-trade, and another 14 cents from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, make up a substantial portion of every gallons price.
The state has also closed two refineries, reducing in-state refining capacity and forcing more imports, which drives prices further. For working- and middle-class families who rely on their cars, these policies function as a regressive tax, imposed in the name of climate virtue but paid by those least able to absorb the cost.
Unsurprisingly, people are voting with their feet. California was the hardest-hit state for domestic outmigration, with roughly 254,000 more people leaving than moving in, according to 2024 Census American Community Survey data. IRS data also shows California has the highest net loss of taxpayers in the country, with one leaving every 1 minute, 44 seconds.
From 2010 through 2024, nearly 10 million people moved out of California to other states, while just over 7 million moved in. SmartAssets analysis of IRS migration data found that California lost the most residents to Texas, with 54,136 households departing and carrying an average adjusted gross income of $146,000.
This net loss of high earners represents a structural risk to Californias income-tax-dependent revenue base. When a state relies heavily on a small number of wealthy taxpayers to fund expansive government, sustained outmigration of that group is not just a demographic shift; it is a fiscal time bomb.
While no state can lead every category, California ranks near the top in several others, including housing costs, retail crime, adult illiteracy, and anti-business regulation. Each of these areas reflects, in different ways, the cumulative effect of progressive policies that prioritize regulation, redistribution, and ideological goals over affordability, safety, and economic freedom.
On housing, the states crisis is both severe and self-inflicted. Accurate, depending on metric. By median home price, Hawaii has the highest average house price in the United States at $840,256, with California close behind at $784,840.
California has the highest average rent in the nation. Those looking to rent in California pay around $2,542 per month, the highest average rent in the U.S.
By affordability ratio (home price to income), Hawaii tops the list at 8.8 and California follows at 8.2, meaning homes cost over eight times the median household income. Only 16% of California homebuyers could afford to purchase a median-priced existing single-family home in the third quarter of 2024.
Decades of restrictive zoning, environmental litigation under laws like CEQA, and local NIMBYism encouraged by state policy have throttled housing supply. Instead of streamlining construction and unleashing the market, Sacramento has layered on subsidies and mandates that do little to reduce costs but expand governments role.
Crime, particularly retail theft, tells a similar story of ideological experiments gone wrong. California does not lead all 50 states in every retail crime metric, but it is the dominant locus of organized retail crime nationally. Reported shoplifting in California in 2023 was 28% higher than in 2019, and commercial burglary remained about 6% above its pre-pandemic level.
Retail theft increased by almost 70% in Sacramento, 65% in Alameda, 41% in San Mateo, and 40% in Los Angeles between 2019 and 2023, with those four counties accounting for 91% of the statewide increase. Prop 47 (2014), which reclassified many theft offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, is widely cited as a contributing factor, and voters passed Prop 36 in November 2024 to partially reverse it.
The state has since ramped up enforcement, though the volume of the problem reflects years of policy failure. For years, progressive prosecutors and lawmakers sent the message that low-level theft would be treated lightly, and criminals responded accordingly, devastating small businesses and hollowing out urban retail corridors.
Education and literacy outcomes further undermine the narrative that Californias progressive model is delivering for ordinary families. California scores poorly on adult literacy but the number one designation depends heavily on methodology.
The state consistently ranks near the bottom on the National Assessment of Adult Literacy and on K12 reading proficiency scores. As of the most recent NAEP data, Californias fourth-grade reading scores remain below the national average, and its adult functional literacy rates are dragged down by a large non-English-speaking population.
This is a legitimate concern but calling it #1 in illiteracy overstates the precision of available rankings. Still, the broader pattern is clear: despite enormous spending, Californias education system is failing to equip large numbers of students with basic skills.
Californias education rankings look very different depending on whether researchers control for demographic factors or measure the entire student population as a whole. When the full population is measured, which is the relevant standard for evaluating a states governance outcomes, California consistently ranks poorly.
On the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), often called the Nations Report Card, California fourth-graders rank in the bottom ten states in both reading and math. Eighth-grade scores follow a similar pattern.
These are not adjusted for demographics they reflect what Californias school system is actually producing across its entire student population, which is the only measure that matters for policy accountability purposes. Californias own data is damning.
The California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) shows that fewer than half of California students meet grade-level standards in English Language Arts, and fewer than one in three meet standards in mathematics. In many urban districts Los Angeles, Oakland, Fresno, San Bernardino the numbers are significantly worse.
For conservatives, these results highlight the failure of a system dominated by powerful teachers unions, bureaucratic priorities, and ideological curricula, rather than rigorous academics and parental choice. School closures during COVID, strongly backed by unions and tolerated by Newsom, only deepened the damage.
On the economic front, Californias regulatory climate has become a byword for hostility to business and work flexibility. Supported directionally, but hard to quantify as a precise number one.
The Tax Foundation and CATO Institute consistently rank California near the bottom for business climate. The state has one of the most extensive labor codes in the country, a strict CEQA environmental review regime, the highest corporate tax rate west of the Mississippi, and AB5 governing gig worker classification.
AB5, signed by Newsom in September 2019, reclassified many independent contractors as employees, requiring companies to provide minimum wage guarantees, overtime pay, unemployment insurance, workers compensation, and other benefits. For many freelancers, small businesses, and gig workers, this law destroyed flexible work arrangements and raised costs, pushing some employers to leave the state or cut ties with California-based contractors altogether.
Taken together, these rankings and trends form a coherent pattern rather than a series of isolated problems. A state that once symbolized opportunity and upward mobility now leads in homelessness, poverty, taxation, deficits, and outmigration, while lagging in education, public safety, and affordability.
From a conservative perspective, the lesson is straightforward: when government grows too large, taxes too heavily, regulates too aggressively, and prioritizes ideological projects over basic governance, decline follows, even in a state as naturally blessed as California. Given his track record, a vote for Newsom is a vote for degeneration.
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