House Speaker Mike Johnson is brushing aside Democratic gains in a Trump-friendly Florida district, insisting Republicans remain well-positioned heading into the midterm elections despite a high-profile special election loss.
According to the Daily Caller, Democrat Emily Gregory captured a Florida State House seat that includes President Donald Trumps Mar-a-Lago residence, defeating Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples in a district the president carried by double digits in 2024. Appearing on Fox News Special Report with Bret Baier, Johnson argued that the upset does not portend broader trouble for the GOP, framing the contest as an outlier rather than a bellwether.
The president, obviously in his backyard, and he won that district overwhelmingly. As you look at that, do you see a canary in the coal mine about November? host Bret Baier asked. The question underscored the concern among some analysts that a Democratic win in such a reliably red area could signal a shift in voter sentiment ahead of November.
I dont at all. In fact, I talked with the president about this after that election result came in and his team. These special elections are a one-off, and theyre anomalies. Thats why we call them special. There was circumstances in that race at the state legislative level not involved with Congress. I am very bullish about November, very bullish about the mid-terms, Johnson said. His comments reflect a broader Republican view that localized dynamics, not national trends, drove the outcome.
Baier pressed him on whether that GOP confidence is justified in light of recent results and persistent media narratives about Democratic momentum. Even right now? Looking at everything thats coming up? Baier asked, inviting Johnson to defend his optimism with specifics rather than talking points.
Absolutely right, and I give you a very boring 90-minute slideshow, Bret, to prove to you all the reasons were going to win. But look, it summarizes us having a great record to run on: promises made, promises kept. The Big Beautiful Bill working families tax cut is going to be working for middle- and lower-class earners, and theyll feel the effects of that and know they made the right decision because we had a big demographic shift in 2024, Johnson said. He framed the GOP agenda as delivering tangible economic benefits, in sharp contrast to the tax-and-spend instincts of the left.
Johnson also pointed to the partys organizational strength and candidate quality as reasons conservatives should remain confident. He argued that Republicans are better prepared, better funded and more aligned with the concerns of working- and middle-class voters than their Democratic opponents.
I think we hold those voters. We got better candidates. We have more funding right now. We have a president who is running like he is on the ballot, and he is out doing rallies around the country and rallying the base. Were gonna have a midterm convention for the first time in history in September, right for early voting, to parade all of these stars and in our great record across the stage. I feel very good about this. I believe were going to defy history and grow the Republican majority, Johnson said. That first-ever midterm convention, he suggested, will serve as a national showcase for conservative policy wins and a counterweight to the legacy media narrative.
Gregorys victory was narrow: she secured 17,113 votes (51.19%) to Maples 16,316 votes (48.81%), in a race where both campaigns together spent more than $1 million. She will replace former Republican State Rep. Mike Caruso, who resigned from House District 87 in August 2025 after Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed him Clerk of the Circuit Court and Comptroller of Palm Beach County.
The Florida setback was not the only recent disappointment for Trump-backed candidates, as Texas Republican Leigh Wambsganss also lost a February State Senate special election in another district the president carried by double digits in 2024. Floridas House District 87, encompassing Palm Beach and Mar-a-Lago, supported Trump by nearly 11 points last year, though his margins there were much slimmer in his previous two presidential campaigns, suggesting a district still fundamentally right-of-center but highly contested.
Even with Gregorys win, Democrats remain a distinct minority in the Florida House, holding just 34 of 120 seats, or 28% of the chamber, despite former Vice President Kamala Harris winning 43% of the statewide vote in 2024. For Republicans like Johnson, those numbers reinforce the belief that Florida remains solidly conservative terrain and that isolated special election losses, while inconvenient, do not negate the broader trend of GOP strength in the Sunshine State and beyond.
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