Businessman Mark Lynch is rapidly closing in on longtime incumbent Sen.
Lindsey Graham (R-SC) in South Carolinas Republican Senate primary, according to a new survey that suggests the GOP base may be ready to punish an establishment figure long viewed with suspicion by grassroots conservatives.
According to Breitbart, the internal poll, conducted for the Lynch campaign, shows Graham languishing at just 41 percent on the initial ballot test, well below the 50 percent threshold typically considered safe for an incumbent. Lynch has surged to 21 percent, while a third candidate, Paul Dans, registers 11 percent, and a sizable 22 percent of likely GOP primary voters remain undecided.
Lindsey Graham is in real trouble in this solidly pro-Trump primary, the polling memo states. When South Carolina Republican voters learn the candidates records, they shift sharply to conservative challenger Mark Lynch. With a large undecided pool and strong Trump alignment on border security and America First issues, Lynch is well-positioned to win the nomination and the seat.
Those initial numbers are troubling enough for Graham, but the situation deteriorates further for the incumbent once voters are given more detailed information about the candidates records and positions. On that informed ballot test, Lynch jumps to 34 percent while Graham collapses to 23 percent, with Dans holding at 11 percent and the undecided bloc actually growing to 26 percent, suggesting many voters are still shopping for an alternative to the status quo.
The survey was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research using Rasmussen Reports licensed methodology, a model familiar to Republican campaigns nationwide. Pollsters interviewed 1,000 likely GOP primary voters in South Carolina between March 11 and 17, and the poll carries a margin of error of 3.1 percent, placing Grahams support precariously close to a potential free fall if late-breaking voters move decisively against him.
President Donald Trump, whose endorsement remains the gold standard in Republican primaries, enjoys a robust 72 percent approval rating among those surveyed, with 41 percent saying they strongly approve of his performance. Trump endorsed Graham early in this race despite their long and often bitter history, but he has not been particularly active on Grahams behalf in recent months, and many conservative voters have not forgotten that Trump once mocked Grahams political viability, saying during the 2016 campaign that the senator could not even win a dog-catcher race in South Carolina.
Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, did not mince words in assessing the danger facing Graham, describing the incumbents standing as politically humiliating. He argued that Lynch has a huge opportunity if he can maintain momentum and capitalize on the electorates appetite for a more reliably conservative, America First-aligned senator.
Ive polled quite a few races like this in the 26 cycle and Lindsey Graham is one of the weakest incumbents Ive seen, Mitchell said. Despite the name ID advantage, Mark Lynch takes a clear lead on the informed ballot. This is a huge opportunity.
Lynchs campaign is also bolstered by a significant financial edge over Dans, the other challenger, giving him the resources to introduce himself to voters and define Graham before the incumbent can repair his image. Lynch has already poured more than $1 million of his own money into the race, and sources familiar with his strategy say he plans to spend at least another $3.5 million over the next two months leading up to the May primary, a level of investment that could help convert the informed ballot scenario in the poll into reality at the ballot box.
If the Rasmussen-based polling snapshot is even close to accurate, Lynch stands a realistic chance of transforming conservative frustration with Graham into a full-scale revolt against a senator many base voters see as too willing to compromise with Democrats on foreign policy, spending, and judicial fights. South Carolina sources tell Breitbart News that Graham clearly recognizes the danger, as he has already begun airing attack ads against Lynch on television across the state, a move that underscores how seriously the entrenched incumbent is taking the threat from a well-funded, unapologetically pro-Trump challenger.
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