The new epicenters of American population growth are no longer Florida and Texas, but the Carolinas.
According to Boston.com, newly released U.S. Census Bureau data show that North Carolina drew more domestic migrants than any other state last year, while South Carolina posted the fastest overall growth rate in the nation.
North Carolina attracted 84,000 new residents from other states, seizing a title that had belonged to Texas in 2024 and to Florida in the two years before that. South Carolina, meanwhile, led the country with a 1.5% overall growth rate, a distinction Florida had held in 2024.
Domestic migration into Texas, long a magnet for Americans fleeing high-tax, high-regulation blue states, has cooled noticeably. The 67,300 people who moved there from other parts of the country barely edged out South Carolinas 66,600 domestic migrants, placing the Lone Star State only marginally ahead of its smaller Southern neighbor.
Florida, once the poster child for pandemic-era relocation and a showcase for conservative governance, also saw its domestic draw weaken. The nations third-most-populous state slipped to No. 8 in state-to-state migration, as more Americans opted to move elsewhere, including to neighboring Alabama.
Some former Floridians are not just leaving the state, but the country altogether. Sabrina Morley and Steven Devereaux sold their home in the Tampa area last year and resettled outside Valencia, Spain, after reassessing what kind of environment they wanted for their future family. Growing up in the 1990s, they said they had enjoyed Floridas diversity and the freedom to play outdoors, but their outlook shifted as they prepared to have children.
I had a pretty good childhood, but I dont think wed be able to give our child the same quality of life because of the cost of living, food quality, and guns have become more prevalent, Devereaux said. We think where we are now, its the best decision we could make to give any future children the best quality of life.
North Carolina officials say their states surge is rooted in economic opportunity and quality of life rather than political theater. State demographer Michael Cline pointed to high-paying jobs in banking and technology, along with the states geographic variety and more moderately sized cities, as key selling points compared with Florida and Texas.
North Carolina is attracting younger folks because we have so many nice areas in North Carolina the mountains and beaches and lakes in between that were benefiting from younger people who decided they can work from anywhere and would rather be in a nice area, Cline said. One of the things about North Carolina, our cities are not huge, and that may be attractive to folks, too.
These shifts are more than a demographic curiosity; they carry serious economic and political implications. Population growth brings new taxpayers, fuels demand for goods and services, and can reshape the balance of power in Congress and the Electoral College after the 2030 census.
In the coming years, domestic migration is expected to play an even larger role in determining which states grow and which stagnate. Federal immigration policy, particularly the Trump administrations crackdown, has sharply reduced migration from abroad, which had been the primary driver of growth in many states during the first half of this decade.
Without renewed immigration growth, the U.S. population is projected to begin shrinking within five years as deaths outnumber births, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That prospect raises the stakes for states competing to attract American workers and families, especially those that prioritize economic freedom, lower taxes, and safer communities.
Even with the slowdown in domestic inflows, Texas and Florida still posted the largest overall population gains last year. Texas added 391,000 residents and Florida 196,000, leading the nation in raw growth despite their diminished pull on Americans moving from other states.
In Florida, growth was driven largely by international migration, while Texas benefited from both immigration and a surplus of births over deaths. Both states experienced dramatic booms earlier in the decade, when strict lockdowns and school closures in blue states pushed residents toward Florida and Texas, where coronavirus restrictions were more relaxed and businesses remained comparatively open.
The sharp domestic migrations they observed during the pandemic have now petered out, especially for Florida, at the same time that immigration is being diminished, said Brookings demographer William Frey. His observation underscores how temporary crises can accelerate long-term trends, but also how quickly those surges can normalize once conditions stabilize.
Demographers in Florida and Texas have expressed some skepticism about the precision of the Census Bureaus migration estimates, even as they acknowledge the agencys methodological rigor. Migration is notoriously difficult to measure because it fluctuates sharply from year to year, and the bureau relies on IRS records and its American Community Survey to construct its estimates.
The ACS data lag by a year, forcing statisticians to project forward, which can introduce uncertainty. In response, some state-level researchers have turned to alternative tools to track population shifts more closely.
At the University of Floridas Bureau of Economic and Business Research, analysts use electrical customer data to estimate growth, a method they argue can capture real-time changes more effectively. Research demographer Richard Doty said there is no single, definitive explanation for why Floridas domestic migration plunged from nearly 319,000 people in 2022 to just 22,500 in 2025.
Doty suggested that Florida may no longer be the bargain it once was, citing a string of hurricanes and the impact of employers return-to-office mandates as possible factors. The cost of housing, in particular, is driving young people and retirees to other states, he said. Also, insurance is higher in Florida than most other states.
When asked about the decline, Gov. Ron DeSantis press secretary, Molly Best, emphasized that Florida experienced a massive influx of new residents during the pandemic. She maintained that the state remains a top-ranked place to live, a claim consistent with Floridas continued strength in overall population growth and its reputation for low taxes, school choice, and relatively light regulation.
Texas officials, for their part, note that even a booming economy cannot single-handedly dictate migration flows. Texas state demographer Lloyd Potter said conditions in other states also shape whether people decide to move, especially when jobs and affordability improve closer to home.
If jobs are plentiful, living is affordable, and the overall quality of life is good, they will be less likely to move for an opportunity outside that community, Potter said. That reality suggests that as more states adopt pro-growth, market-friendly policies, the extraordinary migration waves into a handful of red states may naturally level off.
The broader picture is one of a country in demographic transition, where domestic migration, immigration policy, and economic freedom intersect to determine which regions thrive.
The Carolinas rise, Florida and Texas recalibration, and the looming challenge of a potential national population decline all point to a future in which states that protect opportunity, keep costs in check, and maintain public order will be best positioned to attract Americans seeking stability and a better life.
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