In the heartland of Tennessee, a fiercely contested House race for a predominantly Republican seat is teetering on a knife's edge, with less than a week remaining until the polls open.
The latest data from an Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, released on Wednesday, indicates a neck-and-neck race between Republican candidate Matt Van Epps and Democratic Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn. The poll shows Van Epps with a slim lead of two percentage points 46 percent to Behn's 44 percent with 5 percent of likely voters still undecided.
According to the Western Journal, Van Epps's slender lead, which falls within the poll's 3.9 percent margin of error, is likely to cause unease among Republicans as the Dec. 2 special election looms. This election, due to its timing and potential for low turnout, could yield unpredictable results. When the undecided respondents were asked to back the candidate they were leaning toward, Van Epps garnered 49 percent support, while Behn drew 47 percent support.
The district in question, a vast expanse of central Tennessee stretching from Kentucky to Alabama and incorporating part of downtown Nashville, was won by President Donald Trump by a significant 22-point margin in 2024. Despite Van Epps being the favored candidate in this staunchly Republican district, the timing of the special election the Tuesday following Thanksgiving could impact turnout and potentially provide Behn with an opportunity.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, stated, "The special election in Tennessees 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home." He further noted that early voters favor Behn, with 56% support, while those planning to vote on Election Day lean towards Van Epps, with 51% support. Kimball also highlighted the age factor in voter preference, with younger voters under 40 strongly supporting Behn, while Van Epps's support increases with age, reaching 61% among those over 70.
This special election was triggered by the sudden resignation of former Republican Tennessee Rep. Mark Green following the passage of the "Big Beautiful Bill" in July. Green, who served as chairman of the influential Homeland Security Committee, stepped down for an undisclosed opportunity in the private sector. The outcome of the Dec. 2 race carries significant implications for the Republicans' razor-thin majority, which could dwindle to a one-seat advantage if Behn were to outperform expectations and secure a surprise victory.
In the wake of Democrats' recent electoral gains in the Nov. 4 elections, Republicans are striving to stem the tide. The Democratic candidates have framed their victories as a reflection of voters' dissatisfaction with the high cost of living, a strategy that Behn appears to be emulating. In a recent campaign ad, Behn stated, "Angry about high grocery prices? Worried about health care costs? Feeling burned by tariffs? Then Dec. 2 is your day to shake up Washington."
However, Republicans have focused their efforts on highlighting Behn's past comments and video footage that reveal erratic behavior and a history of espousing far-left beliefs. Despite these efforts, voters seem to be primarily concerned with the cost of living. Behn has previously expressed support for defunding the police and abolishing prisons, while also espousing far-left views on race, including mocking white people for criticizing looting during the Black Lives Matter protests in 2020.
The survey revealed that the economy was the top issue for just under 40 percent of respondents, followed by affordability at 15 percent, health care at 13 percent, and threats to democracy at 13 percent. If Van Epps's campaign fails to secure a decisive victory in this deep-red district, Democrats could gain further momentum as they seek to flip the House in next year's midterm elections.
President Trump has rallied support for Van Epps, hosting a tele-rally and urging his supporters to vote early for the Republican candidate. MAGA Inc., a super PAC affiliated with Trump, has also invested in bolstering support for Van Epps, marking the groups first contribution of the 2026 cycle.
Trump wrote, I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessees 7th Congressional District, who havent voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person.
The conservative Club for Growth has also invested resources into the race to prevent a Democratic upset. Van Epps, who was Greens hand-picked successor, is endorsed by Trump and previously served as a state commissioner. He is also a combat veteran. The survey, conducted between Nov. 22 to Nov. 24, polled 600 likely voters.
The outcome of this race will not only determine the political landscape of Tennessee's 7th District but could also have far-reaching implications for the balance of power in the House. As the clock ticks down to election day, all eyes are on this critical contest in the heartland of Tennessee.
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