Despite the changing retail landscape, Black Friday continues to hold its ground as the most significant shopping day in the United States.
The event, once characterized by frenzied shoppers leaving their Thanksgiving feasts to battle over discounted goods, has evolved over the years. However, it still draws enough enthusiasts to maintain its status as the official commencement of the holiday shopping season.
This year's Black Friday arrives amid economic uncertainty and the volatility of President Donald Trump's broad tariffs on imported goods, according to Breitbart. Retailers are grappling with these challenges, with many absorbing some of the costs and reducing hiring instead of passing the burden onto consumers. The tariffs have influenced consumer confidence, which fell to its lowest since April, when Trump announced his tariffs, following the government shutdown, weak hiring, and persistent inflation, as reported by The Conference Board.
Despite these challenges, consumers have shown resilience. "Shoppers nonetheless have remained resilient and willing to spend," as evidenced by robust quarterly sales reports from retailers like Walmart and Best Buy. However, retail executives have noted that customers are focusing on deals and being selective in their purchases.
Aron Boxer, a 50-year-old from Greenwich, Connecticut, shared his concerns about the tariffs, stating, "The tariffs definitely are not behind me, and I am concerned about it." He delayed purchasing a car this year due to tariff worries and plans to hunt for toy deals on Cyber Monday, demonstrating the cautious approach many consumers are taking.
However, the retail industry is optimistic about the holiday season. Jill Renslow, chief business development and marketing officer at the Mall of America, noted a "very positive start to the holiday season." She reported strong mall traffic leading into Black Friday, surpassing pre-pandemic 2019 numbers.
The National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, has forecasted a healthy increase in holiday sales, estimating that shoppers will spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, a 3.7% to 4.2% increase from last year.
Despite the uncertainty, consumers are still showing up for the holiday season, according to Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer. Online sales have also been robust, with consumers spending $79.7 billion from Nov. 1 to Sunday, a 7.5% increase from the previous year, as reported by Adobe Analytics.
Tariffs have influenced retailers' merchandising and pricing strategies, with many accelerating shipments of holiday merchandise before tariffs took effect and absorbing some of the extra import costs. However, some of the expense has been passed onto consumers, particularly for items like toys, which are largely sourced from China.
Marshal Cohen, chief industry advisor at market research firm Circana, noted that retailers are advertising more modest holiday discounts. However, he anticipates that discounts will deepen over the weekend. Stephen Lebovitz, CEO of CBL Properties, also observed less impressive holiday discounting, suggesting that the silver lining of the tariffs is that retailers have leaner inventory levels, allowing them to maintain pricing power.
As Black Friday unfolds, it's clear that the event remains a significant part of the American retail landscape, even as it adapts to new economic realities and consumer behaviors.
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