In the aftermath of Tuesday's off-year election results, President Donald Trump has offered his interpretation of the outcomes.
In his view, the ongoing government shutdown and his absence from the ballot were the primary factors contributing to the Democratic victories. He shared this perspective in a post on Truth Social, attributing the statement to unnamed pollsters.
"TRUMP WASNT ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT, according to Pollsters, Trump wrote.
As reported by Western Journal, the results from Tuesday's elections were largely predictable, with the exception of one race. However, the margins of victory were somewhat disconcerting for those anticipating a strong GOP performance in the upcoming midterm elections.
In Virginia, Democratic nominee and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger secured a convincing 15-point victory over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, with a final tally of 57.5 percent to 42.3 percent. This led to the night's only real surprise: Democratic Attorney General nominee Jay Jones, despite controversial text messages, won by a 7-point margin against incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares.
In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill ascended to the governorship, defeating GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli by a 56.2 percent to 43.2 percent margin, a wider gap than polls had suggested. Meanwhile, in California, Proposition 50, which proposes a redistricting of the state to favor Democrats in congressional elections, passed with a significant majority.
In New York City, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani triumphed over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a race that was essentially Democrat versus Democrat.
The implications of these results are open to interpretation. All the major races were held in Democratic strongholds, and the Democrats, who are currently facing a shortage of funds and donor enthusiasm, needed cost-effective and convincing victories in areas where neither Trump nor the GOP had made significant efforts. They achieved this goal.
Trump's assertion about the impact of the government shutdown holds some merit. In northern Virginia, where many government employees who typically vote Democratic reside, the shutdown seems to have motivated a larger turnout than usual. This likely contributed to Spanberger's larger-than-expected margin of victory and Jones' win. In New Jersey, the wider margin could be attributed to the delay and reduction of food stamp benefits caused by the shutdown in Democratic strongholds.
Democrats appear ready to return to negotiations, according to reports. If true, this would be an unfortunate October surprise for the very people they claim to protect. However, both Spanberger and Sherrill positioned themselves as pragmatic moderates, and they emerged as the big winners on Tuesday. They, along with their party, now find themselves associated with Jay Jones, who has expressed violent fantasies about his opponents, and Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed socialist.
The consequences of these affiliations will become clearer in 2026, when voters of all affiliations tend to be more engaged. In Virginia, for instance, Spanberger will likely have to spend considerable time explaining why a moderate is working alongside someone who openly fantasized about harming a GOP rival's children. This is unlikely to resonate well in a state with several congressional swing seats.
Similarly, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is expected to openly run for president by the time the midterms take place, may face backlash for redistricting California into a one-party state, especially if more people continue to leave the state. And then there's Zohran Mamdani, who is likely to generate headlines regardless of where you are in the country.
However, this raises a more challenging issue for the GOP: 2026 will be the last election where Donald Trump will be attempting to elect congressmen and governors to work with his administration. From then on, it will be "Trumpism without Trump." Who will step into this role? J.D. Vance? If not, who?
These questions may seem premature, but they are relevant. Neither Trump nor Vance played a significant role in Tuesday's races. Trump's last-minute, lukewarm endorsement of his former adversary Cuomo to prevent Mamdani's victory was somewhat effective in reducing the vote share of Republican nominee and de facto third-party candidate Curtis Sliwa and narrowing Mamdani's margin of victory. However, Trump's enthusiastic endorsement of Ciattarelli in New Jersey did not yield similar results.
In most other places, neither Trump, Vance, nor anyone in the White House seemed particularly engaged, and the same was true for the rest of the GOP. This lack of engagement was evident in the election results. In a low-stakes election, the Democrats maintained their hold while treating the election as if it were a presidential race. The GOP barely tried, and it showed. The silver lining for conservatives is that these results are not necessarily indicative of future outcomes.
However, the downside is that, given the near-total disengagement of donors and a year of blame-shifting tell-alls about the 2024 debacle, the Democrats have gained momentum. Although this momentum was hard-earned in races they should have won anyway and which mean little, it is momentum nonetheless.
This raises the question: If this is how Trump's GOP performs without Trump on the ballot or campaigning for it, how stable will it be in 2028 and beyond?
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