As New York City gears up for its mayoral election, the political landscape is witnessing a dramatic shift.
Socialist Democrat Zohran Mamdani, once predicted to easily outpace his competitors, now finds himself in a tight race with Andrew Cuomo, the former governor of New York.
A recent poll conducted by AtlasIntel reveals a close contest, with Mamdani securing 43.9 percent of the vote, while Cuomo trails closely at 39.4 percent. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, despite pressure to withdraw and simplify the race to a two-man contest, maintains a 15.5 percent share of the electorate.
According to Western Journal, the poll suggests that in a hypothetical head-to-head scenario, Cuomo would edge out Mamdani with 49.7 percent support compared to Mamdani's 44.1 percent. The survey, which gathered insights from 2,404 respondents between October 31 and November 2, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Despite Cuomo's controversial exit from office in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, he appears to have retained significant support among female voters, leading Mamdani 45.1 percent to 37.4 percent. Conversely, Mamdani enjoys a stronger backing from male voters, capturing 50.9 percent compared to Cuomo's 33 percent.
The age demographic presents a stark contrast in voter preferences. Young voters aged 18 to 29 overwhelmingly favor Mamdani, granting him 62.2 percent support, while Cuomo garners only 23.1 percent. However, among the senior demographic aged 65 and above, Cuomo leads with 54.3 percent, leaving Mamdani with 29 percent. This poll follows an earlier one by Emerson and The Hill, which had given Mamdani a substantial 25-point advantage, albeit with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
The election is expected to witness a historic turnout, potentially exceeding 2 million voters, a milestone not reached since 1969, as reported by the New York Post. The dynamics of the race have evolved significantly, with strategic calls for Sliwa to step aside in an effort to consolidate opposition against Mamdani. Lee Miringhoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, noted that such calls have seemingly influenced Sliwa's support, which has dwindled from 24 percent in a previous AtlasIntel poll.
Stephen Graves, an analyst with Gotham Polling, highlighted the potential impact of voter demographics on the election outcome. Despite Mamdani's strong appeal among younger voters during early voting, Graves pointed out that older voters, who are more likely to participate on Election Day, could swing the results in Cuomo's favor. "As the turnout gets larger, it leans more moderate and brings in the independents," Graves observed. "That benefits Cuomo because he was getting more independent while the vast majority of Mamdanis voters were Democrats," he explained.
As the election day approaches, the race remains unpredictable, with both candidates vying for the support of a diverse electorate. The outcome will hinge on voter turnout and the ability of each candidate to mobilize their respective bases.
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