A recent report from the prominent British think tank, Policy Exchange, has raised concerns over the deteriorating relationship between the Republic of Ireland and the United States.
The report, titled "Peak Ireland? Ireland's Diplomatic Challenges and the Lessons for the UK," warns that Britain could face similar repercussions if it fails to align with the shifting strategic priorities of Washington. The report suggests that Ireland's long-standing status as a favored ally of the U.S. is now under threat, due to what it describes as defense "free-loading," divergence in foreign policy, and reliance on low-tax economics that have irked the Trump administration.
As reported by Newsmax, Robert C. O'Brien, the former U.S. national security adviser to President Donald J. Trump, penned a foreword to the report, cautioning that Ireland's once-special standing in Washington is "under unprecedented scrutiny." O'Brien writes, "Ireland has long enjoyed a privileged status in Washington, D.C. But in an era in which the United States under President Trump is seeking to put the American interest first, the U.S. relationship with Ireland is coming under unprecedented strain."
O'Brien highlights Dublin's "sweetheart tax deals" for American corporations and its minimal defense spending as specific sources of irritation for the Trump White House. He states, "Much of Europe is stepping up, but Ireland contributes almost nothing to the defense of the Atlantic and European regions from which it benefits so much." O'Brien further adds that despite its official neutrality, Ireland's foreign policy has become "increasingly activist and hostile to everything the Trump administration stands for," particularly in its treatment of Israel and its burgeoning economic ties with China.
He notes, "Ireland is at the forefront of allegations of genocide against Israel, while simultaneously courting Chinese investment with no concern for Beijing's human rights record."
The Policy Exchange study, authored by Harry Halem, a senior research fellow in its National Security Unit, presents a detailed analysis of Ireland as a nation whose prosperity and diplomatic influence rest on increasingly unstable grounds. The report reveals that Ireland spends a mere 0.2% of GDP on defense, the lowest of any European nation. It also enjoys a $50 billion trade surplus with the U.S., largely driven by American tech and pharmaceutical companies operating in Ireland under favorable tax terms.
The report further notes that Ireland's voting coincidence rate with the U.S. at the United Nations has dramatically fallen to 51% since 2005, and to a mere 17% on Israel-related issues.
The report suggests that Ireland's defense free-riding and its frequent opposition to U.S. positions at the U.N. have created a widening chasm with Washington that even historic cultural ties can no longer conceal. The report's release coincides with the election of leftist Catherine Connolly as President of Ireland, a development Policy Exchange identifies as symbolic of the country's leftward drift. Connolly has previously declared that Ireland "certainly cannot trust" the U.S., France, or the U.K., accusing them of being "deeply entrenched in an arms industry which causes bloodshed across the world."
Connolly has also described Hamas as "part of the fabric of the Palestinian people," while characterizing the U.S. as an "imperial power" contributing to "a very volatile situation in the world."
Policy Exchange suggests that such statements underscore "the sources of precipitous Irish decline in Washington" and indicate that relations are likely to deteriorate under her leadership. The report warns that the U.K. could face similar diplomatic isolation if it strays too far from Washington's priorities.
Halem writes, "The British government may regard gestures such as recognizing Palestinian statehood, handing over Chagos, and taking a lenient stance toward China as cost-free. The example of Ireland demonstrates that these divergences will apply an unsustainable strain to the U.K.'s relationship with the U.S."
The report concludes by offering several recommendations for Britain, urging the government to remain closely aligned with the Trump administration's positions on defense, trade, and foreign policy. It argues that unconditional American charity is "over." Instead, Britain must "box clever," demonstrating flexibility and a readiness to adapt to shifting U.S. expectations.
The report warns that a combination of economic dependence, ideological posturing, and minimal defense engagement has left Dublin dangerously exposed. "Ireland's ability to attract American multinationals has tied its fortunes to the goodwill of U.S. administrations," the report says. "As Washington grows more assertive about burden sharing and trade fairness, Dublin finds itself with fewer friends and less leverage."
For Britain, Policy Exchange insists, the message is clear: alignment with Washington is no longer optional. In an age of great power rivalry, conditional diplomacy, and renewed American assertiveness, "Peak Ireland" could easily become "Peak Britain" if Westminster fails to heed the lessons from across the Irish Sea.
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