In an attempt to invigorate Democratic participation in the forthcoming off-year elections, former President Barack Obama is set to campaign in New Jersey and Virginia this weekend.
These elections could provide a crucial insight into the Democratic Party's standing during President Donald Trump's second term. Obama will be joining Democratic gubernatorial nominees Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, in a strategy that party strategists have characterized as more about turnout than persuasion.
"These 2025 off-year elections ... are more about turnout than it is about persuasion," said Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, who has previously advised senatorial campaigns, as reported by Fox News. Rocha further noted that Obama's involvement "does not hurt anything because you're trying to remind people and motivate the base to go vote."
Spanberger, a former CIA officer and three-term congresswoman, is running to succeed outgoing GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin in Virginia. Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Sherrill is vying to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, facing off against Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, who has received President Trump's endorsement.
For Democrats, victories in these races would provide a much-needed morale boost following last year's disappointing performance when Republicans secured the White House and retained control of both the House and Senate. The Democratic Party has increasingly relied on state governors to wield influence during this period of reduced federal power.
Obama's involvement in these campaigns highlights his continued popularity among Democratic voters. A Gallup poll published earlier this year revealed his approval rating to be 59%, the highest among all living former presidents. However, some Democratic strategists have expressed concerns that Obama's political influence may be waning.
One strategist commented, "The more we move away from the Obama presidency, the less muscle he has to push," pointing to the 2024 cycle where Obama-endorsed candidates failed to secure victory despite his high-profile rallies.
On the other hand, Republicans are also campaigning vigorously in both states, albeit without the support of a high-profile former figure this weekend. The outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey will be closely monitored as indicators of national momentum a year ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
In addition to the gubernatorial races, a ballot measure in California backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom that could potentially shift up to five U.S. House seats to Democrats is also under the spotlight as part of the broader electoral landscape. Obama has also extended his support to this campaign.
For Democrats, the message is clear: mobilize the base ahead of what many perceive as a potential turning point. For Republicans, these state tests will help gauge whether the party's strength under a second Trump term is enduring.
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