As the mayoral race in New York City heats up, the city's residents, myself included, are faced with a challenging decision.
The options are far from ideal, with the Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, the Republican Curtis Sliwa, and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running on the "Fight and Deliver Party" line, all vying for the position. Each candidate carries their own unique set of flaws, much like the unhappy families described by Tolstoy, each terrible in their own way.
However, it seems that only Mamdani's candidacy holds any real weight, as he is predicted to sail to victory in the upcoming election.
According to Reason.com, the potential victory of Mamdani is not expected to bring about the immediate apocalypse that some fear. However, his proposed policies, such as making buses and child care free, creating city-owned grocery stores, increasing taxes on the ultra-rich, and freezing rent on potentially up to one million rental apartments, could have significant implications for the city.
Furthermore, his potential influence on the Democratic Party nationally should not be underestimated, particularly if allies like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y.) use his victory to revive the populist identity politics that have caused much discord and overspending in the past decade.
Mamdani's appeal extends beyond his promises of free services. He embodies the grievances of college-educated and relatively well-off Millennial and Gen Z voters who lack a comprehensive understanding of capitalism and its inherent creative destruction.
These voters often take wealth production for granted, focusing instead on what they perceive as its morally just distribution, while overlooking the challenge of maintaining, much less expanding, economic and social opportunities for all.
The potential impact of Mamdani's mayoralty on New York City is concerning. The city has been on a slow decline since the election of Bill de Blasio, a decline that has continued under the mediocre-at-best performance of Eric Adams. The city has been run by less than stellar leaders for over a decade, a pattern that is not uncommon in New York City's history.
Periods of mediocre-to-terrible mayors are often interrupted by periods of better-than-average governance, but the current trajectory does not bode well for the city.
New York City has often been referred to as "the ungovernable city," a title that seems fitting given the city's current state. Despite being heavily regulated, the city is also one of the freest autonomous zones imaginable. The city's population has fluctuated over the years, with significant declines in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, followed by a resurgence in the late '80s. This resurgence was not guaranteed and was the result of a combination of factors, including the invention of the contemporary financial industry, an influx of immigrants, and improved governance.
However, the city's future is not solely dependent on its political class. The decline of New York City in the '50s, '60s, and '70s was not unique, with many cities in the Northeast and Midwest experiencing similar population declines. Yet, New York's elected officials exacerbated this decline by promising more and more services to people and using gimmicks and tricks to cover growing budget shortfalls. These tactics ultimately failed in the mid-1970s, leading to a fiscal crisis.
The city's current fiscal situation is concerning, with annual shortfalls of $10 billion or more predicted for the foreseeable future. Mamdani's proposed policies, such as freezing rent and increasing the minimum wage, are likely to exacerbate these issues. His housing proposals, in particular, are likely to backfire, leading to a decrease in rental turnover and a lack of incentive for the construction of new units.
Mamdani's proposals, while appealing to some, have been tried before and have failed. His promise to increase the minimum wage to $30 an hour, for example, is likely to lead to automation and job loss, as similar increases have done in the past. His proposal to create city-run grocery stores is nonsensical in a city that already has equitable access to local supermarkets.
The future of New York City under Mamdani's leadership is uncertain. Depending on how much of his agenda he can implement, the city may experience a decline in growth and vitality. However, New York City has always been able to renew itself economically, culturally, and politically.
It is unfortunate that there are no political candidates on the horizon who seem capable of bringing about the kind of positive change that previous mayors like Koch, Giuliani, or Bloomberg were able to achieve.
The most concerning aspect of this situation is that all of Mamdani's potential mistakes are avoidable, as they have been made before. However, New York City, unlike its old colonial rivals, Boston and Philadelphia, has never had much time or use for history.
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