In the race for the Georgia Republican Senate primary, Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) is currently leading the pack, despite the establishment's strong support for his rival, Derek Dooley.
This is according to a recent survey, which also reveals that Collins' lead persists across all tested scenarios.
Collins, a representative of Georgia's 10th congressional district and owner of his own trucking company, is up against Dooley, a first-time candidate, former University of Tennessee football coach, and lawyer, who has the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp (R). Also in the race is Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA), a pharmacist and seasoned GOP lawmaker representing the state's 1st congressional district.
The Republican contenders are all eyeing the seat currently held by Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who was first elected in 2020 and is considered the "most vulnerable" Democrat up for reelection.
According to Breitbart, the survey was independently commissioned by Quantus Insights and shows Collins leading despite the establishment's push for Dooley. The results "suggest that money and endorsements alone aren't reshaping the field, at least not yet," Quantus observed.
With 40 percent of Republican voters still undecided seven months before the election, the direction these voters lean will determine whether Collins' lead is cemented or if the race becomes more heated, the pollster found.
In a ballot test, Collins secured 28 percent support, surpassing Carter's 16.1 percent and Dooley's 16.0 percent, with 40 percent still undecided. In a one-on-one matchup, Collins leads Carter 38.4 percent to 23.4 percent with 38.2 percent unsure, while Collins leads Dooley 42.0 percent to 23.8 percent with 34.1 percent unsure, the survey found.
Collins also leads among undecided leaners with 14.3 percent, compared to Carter's 9.2 percent and Dooley's 9.1 percent, with most choosing to remain uncommitted. Quantus's analysis suggests that Collins "has the widest 'soft' lane to consolidate." Further modeling indicates that Carter and Dooley "would require unlikely levels of undecided consolidation to overtake" Collins.
However, Gov. Kemp's endorsement of Dooley has sparked a significant paid-media push, with both Kemp's federal PAC and Dooley's campaign investing heavily in television advertising statewide and on Atlanta broadcast stations. Despite this increased expenditure and visibility, Dooley's gains appear to be limited, and the overall structure of the race remains largely unchanged since September. Carter's heavier ad investment has yet to translate into voter growth, suggesting name recognition is nearing saturation while Collins retains crossover appeal among fiscal conservatives and Trump-aligned voters.
The survey report continues, indicating that Carter's supporters align more closely with Collins than with Dooley. As undecideds break and lower-tier candidates fade, Carter's base is more likely to migrate toward Collins.
When respondents were asked which candidate is strong enough to take on Ossoff in the general election, Collins (31.6 percent) also leads Carter (19.3 percent) and Dooley (17.5 percent). Thirty-one percent of respondents say they are not sure.
RealClear Polling averages for the 2026 Georgia Senate race so far also show Collins presenting the greatest challenge to Ossoff. According to RCP, Ossoff has a projected narrow 2.3-point lead over Collins, compared to a 3.6-point lead over Carter, and a 6-point lead over Dooley. The Cook Political Report has rated the race a "toss-up."
Survey participants were also asked to weigh in on the level of impact endorsements from Kemp and President Donald Trump have on their vote in the primary. Nearly 21 percent say Kemp's endorsement is "very important" and 35.5 percent say it is "somewhat important," while 20.3 percent say it is "not very important," and nearly 24 percent say it is "not important at all."
President Trump has yet to endorse a candidate in the race but said on October 15 that "some very good people are running." "And I understand that I havent made a decision yet," Trump said. "But Im following that race very carefully." "Its very important for Georgia to get a real senator because the senator they have now is a horrible senator," Trump said of incumbent Sen. Ossoff. "Those people are great and they deserve a good senator, because the man they have now is a weak, ineffective person."
Out of respondents polled, nearly 31 percent say they are "much more likely" to support a Trump-backed candidate, and 23 percent say they are "somewhat more likely." A third say his endorsement has "no impact," while nearly 9 percent say they are "much less likely" to support a Trump-endorsed candidate, and 3 percent say they are "somewhat less likely."
The poll indicates younger and more diverse GOP voters are less decided on a candidate, and younger voters are less excited for the election. The results also show younger and more diverse GOP voters are less influenced by Trump endorsements, and show younger voters respond better to Dooley when presented with his profile as an outside candidate.
The poll, conducted by Quantus Insights using SMS messaging with 1,320 likely Georgia Republican primary voters between Oct. 21-22, 2025, was stratified by region, age, and gender. The margin of error is 2.7 percentage points with a confidence level of 95 percent.
The Georgia Republican Senate Primary election is set for May 19, 2026. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of votes, the top two contenders will compete in a run-off race before the winner challenges Ossoff in November.
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