In the race for the position of Virginia's Attorney General, Democratic nominee Jay Jones is facing significant backlash for his unsettling and violent threats against a Republican legislator.
Despite this, Ken Martin, Chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), asserts that the majority of Virginians have accepted Jones's apology. However, recent polls and betting odds suggest a different narrative.
According to a report by Breitbart, Martin, in an interview with Politico, described Jones's violent texts about killing Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert as "reckless and unacceptable." Yet, he also expressed faith in the forgiving nature of Virginia voters. "I believe that most Virginians have accepted that apology and that they'll elect Jay Jones as the next attorney general," Martin predicted.
Contrary to Martin's optimistic outlook, recent polling data paints a less favorable picture for Jones. A survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group revealed a decline in support for the Democratic candidate, with Jones's approval rating falling to 43 percent from nearly 49 percent earlier in the month, as reported by The Hill.
Meanwhile, his Republican adversary, Jason Miyares, saw his support increase by almost four percent, from 45 percent to 48.9 percent.
While some media outlets label Trafalgar as a "right-leaning" or "right-wing" polling group, other indicators also suggest that Jones's campaign has been negatively impacted by the revelation of his violent texts, first exposed in early October by the National Review.
Newsweek reported a significant drop in Jones's chances of winning according to betting odds sites, which often accurately predict election outcomes. "Jones held a 53 percent chance of winning in Polymarket's odds as of October 7, but that has steadily dropped since. On Thursday, Miyares had a 68 percent chance of winning, while Jones had roughly a 33 percent chance of winning," the news magazine reported.
Kalshi's betting odds echoed a similar sentiment, favoring Jones throughout the year until the texting scandal broke. Jones's chances of winning, which ranged from 80 to 99 percent throughout the summer, reversed on October 5. As of Thursday, Miyares held a 62 percent chance of winning, while Jones had only a 38 percent chance.
Even Jones's own polling, as reported by The Hill, indicates a tightening race, suggesting a virtual dead heat.
The controversy surrounding Jones's disturbing texts may prove to be a significant hurdle for his campaign. Newsweek quoted the text message Jones sent to Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner, which read, "Three people, two bullets Gilbert, Hitler, and Pol Pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head. Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time."
In a televised debate with incumbent Attorney General Miyares, Jones expressed remorse for his actions. "I'm ashamed, I'm embarrassed and I'm sorry," he stated. Martin, in his interview with Politico, reiterated that Jones had taken responsibility for his words and apologized to the former speaker and Virginians.
"I believe in free and fair elections, and Virginia voters are the ones that will have to make this decision Virginians will make a final decision on who they want to be their next attorney general," he said.
As the race for the Attorney General's office in Virginia continues, it remains to be seen whether Jones's apology will be enough to sway voters in his favor, or if his disturbing threats will prove to be an insurmountable obstacle.
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