The political landscape of New York City is perpetually vibrant, and the current mayoral race is no exception.
The candidates are tirelessly campaigning, each attempting to persuade the citizens of the Big Apple that they are the most suitable choice to guide the city's destiny over the next four years.
Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee and media favorite, was recently showcased around Capitol Hill by fellow Democrat Socialist, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). This was a strategic move to sway Congressional members of their party who have yet to endorse Mamdani, primarily due to concerns about his pro-Hamas, antisemitic views and his refusal to denounce "globalize the intifada" chants.
Simultaneously, the former NY Governor Andrew Cuomo (D), who conceded to Mamdani after finishing second in the June primary, made a surprising announcement this week. He revealed that he would remain in the race as the candidate for the "Fight and Deliver" party, a party he likely established as a contingency plan should his primary bid be unsuccessful.
While extensive polling has not yet been conducted for the general election race, the available data offers intriguing insights. According to RedState, a poll conducted by Cuomo-aligned pollster Honan Strategy Group, released two days post-primary, indicated a tie between Cuomo and Mamdani, each securing 39 percent support.
The incumbent NYC Mayor Eric Adams, running as an independent, lagged significantly behind in third place with 13 percent, while GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa trailed in fourth place with seven percent.
Interestingly, the same poll suggested that if Adams were to withdraw, the advantage would swing to Cuomo, placing him four percent ahead of Mamdani. Conversely, if Cuomo were to withdraw, Mamdani would be the clear favorite over Adams by an impressive 15 percent.
However, a poll by the left-leaning outlet Data for Progress shows Mamdani with a distinct advantage over Cuomo (40 percent to 24 percent). Recent polling from HarrisX presents a different picture, with Mamdani and Cuomo within three points of each other and Sliwa making significant strides, moving just behind Cuomo into third place. This aligns with the Honan Strategy Group's findings regarding the potential outcome should Adams withdraw:
"A new poll from HarrisX finds the New York City mayoral race shaping up to be a tight and competitive contest, with Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani statistically tied with former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa in a four-way race. While Mamdani leads Mayor Eric Adams in a head-to-head race, the poll shows Cuomo defeating the Democratic nominee by a wide 15-point margin in a one-on-one contest."
One common thread among all three candidates is that Adams seems to be stagnating in the teens. This could be attributed to voters perceiving him as an ally of Trump, particularly after the fraud charges were dropped. While many things can be overlooked in NYC politics for Democrats, aligning with the POTUS is not one of them.
Although it's still early days, and it's challenging to predict whether this poll will be an outlier, if Cuomo's numbers hold or improve as the campaign progresses, it will be a strong indicator that Mamdani's invincibility has been compromised.
This is largely due to the efforts of individuals in and around NYC who are spreading the word about the potential dangers of a Mamdani leadership before it's too late.
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