A recent poll has revealed that a significant portion of California voters would opt for a candidate other than former Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial race.
The survey, conducted by the University of California, Irvine, indicates that Harris garners 41% support against a generic Republican candidate's 29%. This data highlights the hurdles Harris faces as she contemplates a potential entry into the gubernatorial race.
According to WND, the poll director, Jon Gould, remarked on Harris's position, stating, "Its interesting to see a candidate who isnt announced that much farther up on her rivals." He further noted the curiosity surrounding her preference among voters, pointing out her +11 net favorability rating. However, Gould emphasized that Harris's widespread recognition does not guarantee an easy path, as she has not surpassed 50% support, and 40% of the electorate remains undecided. This leaves ample opportunity for other contenders to challenge her dominance.
The poll's detailed findings reveal a more nuanced landscape. Among independent voters, a crucial demographic in California's top-two primary system, 52% remain uncertain, with only 13% expressing outright support for Harris. Despite the Democratic Party's substantial advantage in voter registration, these figures suggest a notable level of indifference toward Harris. The poll also shows that only 3% of self-identified Republicans would back Harris, with 38% undecided. Meanwhile, Democrats offer her 49% support, with a quarter still undecided, indicating that personal loyalty to Harris is not as robust as the party's overwhelming majority might suggest. This is particularly evident when compared to Governor Gavin Newsom's 20% favorability boost following his confrontation with President Donald Trump over the Los Angeles riots.
The lack of name recognition for other potential candidates keeps their support in the single digits. Real estate magnate Rick Caruso stands at 9% statewide, former Democratic California Rep. Katie Porter at 6%, and former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra struggles to reach 2% in several regions. Despite Harris's +11% favorability rating, the reception remains tepid.
The poll respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the state's direction, with a two-to-one margin believing California is "on the wrong track." They prioritized issues such as housing, cost of living, and crime over cultural debates. This discontent is reflected in Harris's numbers, as 14% of voters indicated they would abstain from voting if the choice were between Harris and a Republican, signaling potential challenges for Democrats who rely heavily on voter turnout.
Gould commented on the prevailing sentiment, stating, "Were in a period of disappointment and distrust. No one seems happy with anything." In response to Harris's 2024 White House defeat, where she trailed President Trump by approximately 2.3 million votes, Democrats have initiated a new policy strategy known as "Project 2029." Harris is anticipated to announce her decision regarding the gubernatorial race later this summer, as reported by Politico.
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