The Catholic Church is poised for a shift towards the ideological center following the death of Pope Francis at 88, according to experts.
The successor to the late pontiff, who led the world's 1.4 billion Catholics for 12 years, is expected to be more conservative, given the controversies stirred by Francis' support for LGBTQ Catholics and his suppression of the traditional Latin Mass.
Serenhedd James, editor of Britain's Catholic Herald magazine, predicts that the next Pope will be of a centrally conservative disposition. "After 12 years of Pope Francis stirring things up, I think the cardinals will want someone who will take a different, calmer approach," he said.
According to The New York Post, the Rev. Patrick Mary Briscoe, editor of Our Sunday Visitor magazine, also anticipates that the next Pope will bring "a renewed clarity of doctrine" to the church and will be "focused more internally" on its governance.
Following the Pope's death, a conclave of 120 cardinals, chosen from the 138 "princes of the church" who are under age 80 and eligible to vote, will convene at the Vatican within 20 days to select his successor. The process involves four daily ballots until a successor is chosen. After 30 ballots, only the top two candidates remain, and a two-thirds majority is required to elect the next Pope.
Briscoe noted that Francis "completely reshaped the makeup" of the College of Cardinals, whose newer members are "extremely familiar with each other." The late Pope extended the tenure of Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 91, as "dean" of the college, and Briscoe believes he could have a "behind-the-scenes influence" on the proceedings due to his knowledge of the other cardinals.
Italian Vatican watcher Gaetano Masciullo and Vaticanists Edward Pentin and Diane Montagna of the College of Cardinals Report website have identified several top candidates, ranging from advocates of "neo-modernist" theological positions to more conservative leaders.
Among the potential successors are Tagle from the Philippines, who has expressed very 'open' opinions on issues such as Communion for non-sacramentally married couples and homosexuality. The Vatican's Secretary of State Parolin, who is Italian, has some conservative positions and is rated as having a "high chance" of being elected due to his global diplomatic experience.
Aveline from France, reportedly Francis' "favorite" cardinal to succeed him, is considered a "dangerous contender" for the papacy. He is appreciated in left-wing ecclesiastical and political camps and supports "strong decentralization" for the church.
Eijk, a physician and theologian from the Netherlands, adheres to Catholic doctrine even when it is unpopular. He opposes blessings for same-sex couples and "gender therapy," and does not support the ordination of women, a stance that would appeal to conservative elements.
Ranjith, the archbishop of Colombo, Sri Lanka, is aligned with both the late Pope Benedict XVI and Francis' concern for the poor and the environment. His election would elevate an Asian to the papacy and install a man where Catholicism is experiencing tremendous growth.
Sarah, a traditional and orthodox former Vatican official from Guinea, has been publicly critical of restrictions on the traditional Latin Mass and the authorization of blessings for same-sex couples. His outspoken criticism of Pope Francis has endeared him to conservatives, and he could potentially be the first African pope since the fifth century.
While any baptized male Catholic can technically be elected Pope, an unordained person would need to be ordained and elevated to the position of bishop before their election could take effect, according to canon law expert Edward Peters.
However, Kean University history professor Christopher Bellitto believes the "odds of someone other than a cardinal being elected are lower than a snowballs chance in hell." He recalled that the last time the Vatican elected a non-cardinal was in 1294, resulting in the resignation of Pope Celestine V, who was famously placed at the doorway of hell in Dante's "Inferno."
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