The United States is grappling with a renewed threat from the Islamic State (IS), following a deadly attack in New Orleans on New Year's Day.
The incident, which claimed 14 lives and left many injured, has been labeled an "act of terrorism" by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). The alleged perpetrator, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old U.S. citizen and army veteran, was killed during the attack. Evidence found at the scene, including the notorious black flag of IS in his rental truck and a series of videos on Facebook in which he pledged allegiance to the group, has raised alarm bells about the resurgence of IS on American soil.
According to The Guardian, the notion that IS has suddenly re-emerged in the U.S. is a misconception. For months, top officials and analysts have been warning of an impending attack. Clara Broekaert, a research fellow at the Soufan Center who monitors IS's online activities, stated, The attack was hardly unexpected there had been flashing warning signs. In recent months, weve witnessed an unrelenting stream of rhetoric calling for violence during the holiday season, along with repeated chatter about low-tech tactics, from knife attacks to vehicle rammings.
Broekaert's sentiments were echoed by high-ranking officials such as outgoing FBI director, Christopher Wray, and Attorney General, Merrick Garland, who in an October press release, identified IS as a top national security concern. CIA Director Bill Burns also recently referred to IS as "resurgent," a description that has been underscored by the political turmoil in Syria.
Throughout the summer, IS propaganda has consistently targeted America, particularly during the presidential election campaign, which was marred by unprecedented political violence and assassination attempts. The encrypted communications platform of IS, Rocket.Chat, was abuzz with supporters and recruiters in the lead-up to the holiday season. One user even posted a YouTube link on carjacking, encouraging others to use stolen cars in future attacks.
Broekaert noted that, "In 2024 alone, at least five plots linked to the Islamic State both inspired and directed have been thwarted within the United States." The success of the New Orleans attack, which IS has yet to formally claim responsibility for, has already significantly bolstered the group's online efforts.
In the run-up to the November election, there was a surge in IS activities. A Canada-based Pakistani national was apprehended before he could allegedly execute a plot against a New York Jewish center. In October, an Afghan man was arrested in Oklahoma for allegedly planning an election day mass shooting in support of IS. Around the same time, a Maryland man was taken into custody on suspicion of supporting IS and attempting to purchase a Kalashnikov assault rifle.
The alleged actions of Jabbar have been lauded in IS chatrooms as a textbook operation. Manuals and social media posts from IS and its predecessor organization, a1l-Qaida, have long advocated the use of car ramming attacks. One IS supporter wrote, Die in your rage America, while another immediately sought advice on how to execute a similar operation.
The use of trucks in terrorist attacks has a long history, dating back to 2010 when an al-Qaida magazine urged followers to use trucks, the "ultimate mowing machine," to target Americans. The Oklahoma City bomber, Timothy McVeigh, notably used a U-Haul rental truck to detonate his bomb, rather than a car registered under his name.
Whether Jabbar was a genuine IS operative or merely a follower who engaged with the terror groups vast online archive remains unclear. IS has prioritized inspiring disparate followers via recruitment literature spread in chatrooms or on apps like Telegram, urging them to commit acts of terrorism that would otherwise risk their operatives and networks in hostile countries.
Lucas Webber, a senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, stated, IS poses threats in the form of directed operations, guided plots and inspiring followers to mobilize. The organization and greater movement will look to leverage the attack for propaganda purposes and to build support.
Webber noted a surge in propaganda calling for the US to be next, following the lethal IS attack on a Moscow theatre that killed 145 people in March. He said, IS, its branches and pro-IS propaganda outlets have continued to heavily focus on the United States as a leading enemy and top priority target. Given ISs evolving online guidance activities, its vital for governments to build open-source intelligence capabilities to identify and disrupt plots.
American authorities have been commended for disrupting an IS plot against a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna and even for providing Russian intelligence officials, major geopolitical adversaries, with warnings about the eventual Moscow attack. However, as Broekaert pointed out, despite these impressive efforts, the harsh reality remains: "[IS] only have to be right once." This sobering truth underscores the need for continued vigilance and proactive measures to counter the IS threat.
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