As the Trump administration prepares to take office, influential Republicans are urging the new government to reconsider South Africa's participation in lucrative trade agreements unless the African nation alters its stance towards Russia, China, Iran, and Israel.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows South Africa to export items such as automobiles and citrus fruits to the U.S. duty-free, is particularly at risk. This could potentially lead to the loss of tens of thousands of African jobs. The incoming administration is expected to scrutinize South Africa closely.
According to a 2023 publication from the Center for African Studies at Howard University, countries seeking to benefit from AGOA's preferential trade agreements must not act in ways that undermine U.S. national security or foreign policy interests. South Africa's recent actions, however, have raised concerns. The country has participated in military exercises with Russia, allowed its naval bases to be used by the Kremlin, and refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the U.N.
Furthermore, South Africa's ruling ANC party has shown support for the terrorist group Hamas. The government condemned the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh earlier this year, with Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola criticizing the "assassination" of the designated terrorist leader as a violation of international law. South Africa has also accused Israel of genocide at the International Court of Justice.
As reported by Fox News, J. Brooks Spector, a former U.S. diplomat now based in Johannesburg and deputy editor of the respected Daily Maverick, said, "Given the South African positions on the Russia-Ukraine and Mideast conflicts, South Africa is leaning away from American positions in a number of ways, most especially in its vigorous pursuit of Israel and its leaders in the international courts." He added that South Africa's actions could encourage Republicans in Congress to strip the country of benefits under AGOA.
Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, expressed concern about South Africa's efforts to align with Russia, China, and Iran, and the impact this has on U.S. national security a vital element in AGOA eligibility. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa and member of the Senate Finance Committee, criticized South Africa for harboring sanctioned Russian ships, expanding relations with Iran, and issuing statements against Israels right to defend itself following Hamas recent terror attacks.
Richard Goldberg, a former member of the National Security Council and a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, expressed particular concern over potential links between South Africa and Iran. He suggested that the U.S. should declassify intelligence about South Africas deep relationship with Iran, and any other support or partnership with terrorist groups, and then use its full diplomatic and economic weight to force Pretoria to choose between the United States and its terrorist adversaries.
Matthew Parks, COSATUs Parliamentary Co-ordinator, expressed cautious optimism about the future of U.S.-South Africa relations, including through AGOA. He stated, "We are confident that our relations with the U.S. will continue to grow, including through AGOA, simply because it is to the benefit of both our peoples."
Ebrahim Rassool, starting his second term as South African ambassador to the U.S., spoke about South Africas challenges with the new administration. He emphasized the importance of South African exports to the U.S., such as oranges and BMWs, and pointed out that American cancer patients are receiving medical nuclear isotopes from South Africa.
However, the potential expulsion of South Africa from AGOA could be "disastrous," according to Renai Moothilal, CEO of the National Association of Automotive Component & Allied Manufacturers. He warned that some component manufacturers might close their doors if there are volume losses linked to South Africa's exclusion from AGOA.
President-elect Trump has threatened to impose a 100% import tariff on countries like South Africa if they adopt a new currency to rival the dollar as members of BRICS. Meanwhile, South African politicians are taking a more placatory and reserved tone. Emma Powell, the DAs national spokesperson for foreign affairs, suggested that the relationship between Pretoria and Washington "will become increasingly transactional, with greater emphasis placed on equitable reciprocity."
As the Trump administration prepares to take office, the future of South Africa's participation in AGOA remains uncertain. However, the situation also presents an opportunity for Africa's nations to come together with initiatives offering trade and market concessions in Africa to America, according to J. Brooks Spector.
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