The United States, in a potential conflict with China, would deplete its inventory of advanced missiles and bombs in less than a month, and some crucial weapons would be exhausted in just a few days.
This alarming revelation comes from a wargames simulation conducted by the House Select Committee on China.
According to the Washington Free Beacon, the simulation revealed that America's stockpile of long-range anti-ship missiles, vital for defending Taiwan in a maritime conflict in the event of a Chinese invasion, would be depleted within three to seven days. Furthermore, the United States would exhaust its supply of long-range cruise missiles within a month. Taiwan's own supply of mid-range anti-ship missiles would also be used up within a week of combat.
These findings have set off alarm bells among legislators, who are concerned that America's defense industrial base is grossly unprepared to provide the necessary arms should China act on its repeated threats to invade Taiwan. As China's military continues to expand rapidly, U.S. supply lines are stretched thin due to conflicts in the Middle East and other geopolitical flashpoints.
Rep. John Moolenaar (R., Mich.), the chairman of the China committee, expressed his concerns, stating, "What we learned is that in a protracted war, our defense industrial base does not have the resources it needs to win that war. It's stretched thin with different regional conflicts around the world. We need to make sure we shore up our defense industrial base so that we can win a war if it were ever necessary."
The wargames session, held at the end of November, demonstrated that the "U.S. military and defense industrial base are being stressed" by global conflicts, including the upheaval in the Middle East and Russia's war on Ukraine. The simulation was run over 25 times to ensure the accuracy of the results, which consistently showed that the United States had "insufficient stockpiles of critical munitions for protracted war." This includes the missiles that would be crucial to defeating China in any land and sea battle.
In the current defense landscape, the United States would need "roughly two years to produce key munitions" required for a conflict with China, including Tomahawk missiles, cruise missiles, and surface-to-air munitions. It would take the United States decades longer to rebuild ships and aircraft carriers destroyed in a standoff with Beijing. Americas aircraft carrier replacements would take an estimated 40 years to resupply, while new attack submarines would take around eight years, according to a summary of the wargames published by the China committee.
These findings are particularly significant given that any war with China over Taiwan would likely drag on for years. The ground campaign in such a war "unfolds at the speed of a man crawling in the mud," according to a summary of the wargames. It would also be nearly impossible to reinforce Taiwan in advance of a Chinese attack.
American warships would need around a month to begin engaging Chinese military positions. During this time, there would be "aircraft losses on the ground" and a need for anti-ship missiles that the United States cant supply. By the fourth week of battle, "anti-ship missiles are needed, but we have mostly land attack" capabilities.
In the face of these challenges, China has prioritized spending on the very arms America would need during a time of war. It has invested heavily in all facets of naval, land, air, and space warfare. China has been striving to surpass the United States in sophisticated arms for some time. U.S. Strategic Command warned last year that Beijing had outpaced America in its supply of land-based intercontinental ballistic missile launchers.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan acknowledged these concerns during an event with the Center for Strategic and International Studies held last week. "God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC," Sullivan said during the event. "But any war with a country like the PRC, a military like the PRC, is going to involve the exhaustion of munition stockpiles very rapidly."
The findings from the wargames simulation underscore the urgent need for the United States to bolster its defense industrial base. As China continues to grow its military and invest in sophisticated arms, the U.S. must ensure it has the resources necessary to defend its interests and allies, particularly Taiwan, in the event of a protracted war.
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