The future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hangs in the balance as rebel forces continue to make significant strides in their renewed offensive in Syria, according to Charles Lister, director of the Syria and countering terrorism and extremism programs at the Middle East Institute.
Lister, in a conversation with Bloomberg, stated that Assad's position has "never looked more fragile" as opposition forces inch closer to Homs and support from allies dwindles.
As reported by the Daily Mail, the rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), announced a significant victory as they seized control of the city of Hama last Thursday. This rapid advance, barely a week old, has dealt a severe blow to the Assad regime and its allies in Russia and Iran. It marks the fastest battlefield advance since the rebellion against Assad spiraled into a civil war 13 years ago.
The capture of Hama has handed the rebels control of a strategic central city, a feat they had not achieved before. Homs, the last major city on the route to the capital, Damascus, is the next target. "Assad now cannot afford to lose anything else. The big battle is the one coming against Homs. If Homs falls, we are talking of a potential change of regime," Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Syria Report newsletter, told Reuters.
However, Russia, a key ally of Assad, appears unable to provide the necessary support to help Assad regain lost ground, with its focus and resources directed towards Ukraine. A source "close to the Kremlin" told Bloomberg, "Russia doesn't have a plan to save Assad and doesn't see one emerging as long as the Syrian president's army continues to abandon its positions."
Iran, another ally, has also been hesitant or perhaps unable to extend its support to Syria. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran would only assist Assad "to the extent necessary," but had previously promised to "consider" sending troops.
Meanwhile, the Syrian Democratic Forces, the primary ally of the US against the regime, seized key areas in Deir ez Zor and Raqqa on December 6. This move has made it more challenging for Iran to send forces to assist Assad or resupply Iranian-backed forces like Hezbollah.
The rebels' advance has also posed a direct threat to Assad's rule, according to Israel's military assessment. While a weakened Assad regime aligns with Israel's interests, there is ongoing debate about sending troops amid an ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza and clashes with Iran.
Despite being backed by intense Russian airstrikes, pro-government forces have been unable to halt the rebels' advance. Russia's influence in Syria, a strategic stronghold for its efforts to project power in the Middle East, is at stake. Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Wall Street Journal that the loss of influence would be "devastating" for Russia.
The Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Russian forces have "suffered significant losses, with some units of the aggressor state surrounded". It also reported that "hundreds of Moscow troops are listed as missing in Syria."
Assad's regime, which relied heavily on Russian and Iranian backing during the most intense years of the conflict, is now facing a significant challenge. Russia has been focused on the war in Ukraine since 2022, and many in the top leadership of Hezbollah, the most powerful Iran-aligned force, were killed by Israel over the past two months.
"The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining whether the rebel offensive poses an existential threat to the Assad regime or whether the regime manages to regain its footing and push back on recent rebel gains," said Mona Yacoubian, an analyst with the United States Institute for Peace, as reported by the Associated Press.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the main insurgent commander, has vowed to protect Syria's religious minorities as HTS makes gains. In public remarks clearly intended to soften his image and reassure foreign countries, Golani has also emphasised his split years ago with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, and said he has always opposed attacks outside Syria.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed "support to the Assad regime will almost certainly fail to stop the opposition offensive at this time unless ground forces are deployed rapidly and in larger numbers". This assessment underscores the precarious position of the Assad regime and the potential for a significant shift in the balance of power in Syria.
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