In the historically Democratic stronghold of Texas' Rio Grande Valley, a significant shift in political allegiance is brewing among the predominantly Hispanic voters, according to local reports from the Daily Caller.
The region, which shares its borders with northern Mexico and the Rio Grande River, has been a bastion of Democratic support for generations. However, escalating living costs, growing discontent with the Democratic party's stance on cultural issues, and a revitalized GOP are all contributing to a potential political realignment.
The Rio Grande Valley, encompassing Starr, Hidalgo, Willacy, Zapata, and Cameron counties, overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections. However, the 2020 elections saw a significant shift in favor of Trump, with Zapata County turning red for the first time in a century, according to Jennifer Thatcher, the Republican Chair of Zapata County. "What they want is change," Thatcher said, referring to the voters of Zapata County. "Everybody's tired of the same thing, you know, same empty promises and nothing getting done."
In the 2016 elections, Clinton secured a decisive victory over Trump in Zapata County, which is 94 percent Hispanic, with 65 percent of the vote. However, the 2020 elections saw Trump narrowly defeating Biden with a 53-47 margin, gaining an additional 1,000 voters in the county of 12,000 residents. This trend was not isolated to Zapata County; Trump gained 69,493 votes across the five counties of the Rio Grande Valley between 2016 and 2020. Local Republicans believe that this upward trajectory could continue in future elections. "His support is just really remarkable," said Toni Trevino, the Republican Chair of Starr County. "Its off the charts, more so than in 16 and 20."
While Trump's immigration policies have been a point of contention for some voters in the border counties, the primary driver of this political shift appears to be economic concerns. "Things are getting very expensive," said Jorge Bazan, a Starr County voter who identifies as a lifelong Democrat. He cited rising costs at restaurants and grocery stores as significant factors influencing his decision to vote for Trump. "The economy was better when he was in office," Bazan added, noting that the cost of a foot of pipe for his water company had risen from $8 in 2020 to $21.
According to Trevino, many Starr County Democrats voted blue for local candidates but also voted for Trump. This sentiment was echoed by local organizer Col. Ross Barrera, who reported that many first-generation Mexican-Americans told him they were voting Democrat locally but supporting Trump at the national level. The primary reason for this shift, according to former Democrats who spoke with Barrera, Thatcher, and Trevino, was financial hardship.
The Rio Grande Valley is one of the poorest regions in the U.S., with a family poverty rate of 27 percent, more than double the national rate of 11.5 percent, according to the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. The rising cost of living and limited job opportunities, particularly those offering decent wages, are significant concerns for residents. "They saw the four years of Donald Trump, when their lives were better, and then theyve seen the last four years when their lives have been not as good for their family," Trevino explained.
Despite these economic challenges, local Hispanic voters are not seeking handouts, according to Barrera. "The reason they come to America, not because they want abortions. They come because of jobs. These people, they want to work. They dont want a giveaway. But the Democrats [say], 'Oh, well give you this. Well give you that. No, no, no, give me a job,'" Barrera said.
While economic issues appear to be the primary catalyst for the political shift in the valley, other Democratic platform issues, such as funding foreign wars, border security, sex-changes for children, and abortion, are also contributing to the exodus from the party. For instance, Bazan cited abortion as a key reason for his rejection of the Democrats, and county officials have heard similar stories from others. However, the economy remains the primary concern for these voters. "The economy, illegal immigration, inflation, and oil, are the four key issues for voters in Starr County," Barrera said. "Notice, I didnt say anything about the transgender issue. Nothing about abortion. These are the issues that hit people hard. People want to work. They dont want [the Democratic Partys] ways."
The region has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, with the New York Times listing Texas as a toss-up in 2020, suggesting that Joe Biden could be the first Democrat to win the state since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The paper cited the Hispanic vote and the Valley's local Democratic candidates, who often run unopposed, as key factors. This lack of opposition has led to what former Republican Texas Rep. Mayra Flores called "single-party rule."
"So many voters believe the only election of consequence is the primary election. Most voters, even those with conservative beliefs, vote in the Democrat primaries so they can have a say in who their locally-elected officials are," Flores said. "Its only recent that Republicans have been considered competitive in this area, and the investment in campaigning and outreach has been a priority."
In the past, it was socially frowned upon not to vote for Democrats, according to Barrera. "You couldnt say you were a Republican because they would paint you as, 'Oh, you want to be white. Oh, you wanna be rich. Youre in the wrong party,'" Barrera said. However, the political landscape appears to be changing.
In Barreras Starr County, Trump's share of the vote increased from 19 percent in 2016 to 47 percent in 2020, despite narrowly losing to Biden. Biden received 123 fewer votes in 2020 than Clinton did in 2016. "I think it is almost certain that he will over-perform from 2020, and it is entirely possible that he sweeps the entire Rio Grande Valley," Flores said.
This trend is not confined to the Rio Grande Valley; nationally, Trump is outperforming Kamala Harris among Hispanic male voters, according to an October AP/NORC poll. Harris has struggled to connect with Hispanic voters compared to her Democratic predecessors. Hillary Clinton carried the Hispanic vote by 40 points, and Biden did so by around 30. Harris led Trump by 12 points with registered Hispanic voters, according to an Economist/YouGov poll from late October.
Trevino and other party officials attribute Trump's gains to increased intensity and cohesion in their organizing efforts. The region, which has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the country, has seen a surge in voter participation in the last two presidential elections. "Almost 12 percent of the early votes cast so far this year are from voters who have not voted in the last four elections," Flores said. "The enthusiasm is high, but, at least in South Texas, seems to be one-sided."
"Latino voters have been abandoned by the Democratic party. After decades of one-party rule, being taken for granted, and only seeing things get worse, they want a change," Flores concluded, encapsulating the sentiments of many Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley.
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