As the clock ticks down to the upcoming election night, officials nationwide are gearing up to tally an anticipated tens of millions of ballots.
The process of vote reporting varies from state to state, which means that the leading candidate in any given race can fluctuate throughout the night of the election and the subsequent days.
According to Fox News, the early results from states that report votes from urban and suburban areas are likely to lean Democratic, but as the rural areas start reporting, the scales may tip towards the Republicans. Similarly, states that report their in-person votes first might initially seem to favor the Republican candidate. However, as they begin reporting mail-in ballots, the overall Republican lead can diminish or even turn into a Democratic lead. This phenomenon, known as the "red mirage," was observed in several battleground states during the last presidential election.
The process of vote counting often takes longer in densely populated states. Fox News will project a race when the data indicates a clear winner, and there is no scenario where the trailing candidate could overtake the leader. This guide to ballot counting in the seven battleground states is based on the Associated Press's reporting of the process in each state and aligns with Fox News analysis of previous returns.
This year's election returns could look different. Fewer Americans are expected to vote before election day, and the divide between Democrats and Republicans on how they cast their ballots appears to be less pronounced. Moreover, some states have altered their ballot counting processes since 2020.
However, it is crucial to note that every state has measures in place to ensure votes are counted correctly and securely. Elections officials regularly test ballot counting machines, track the location of ballots, and use measures ranging from barcodes to watermarks to ensure that only eligible voters can vote.
In Arizona, for instance, ballots cast and processed before Election Day are the first to be reported after polls close. These ballots have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. Mail ballots delivered on Election Day take much longer to tabulate because election workers do not begin processing or verifying them until after polls close. In Maricopa County, which has the states largest population, about 20% of the nearly 1.6 million votes cast in 2022 were mail ballots dropped off on Election Day. In Arizona, recounts are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less.
In Georgia, county elections officials can begin tabulating mail ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day. As a result, the first votes reported on election night will include many of these mail ballots as well as early in-person votes. These ballots have also tended to favor Democrats, suggesting that the Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in the vote count in the initial vote reports after polls close, even though the race may tighten considerably as more votes are tabulated. There is no automatic recount provision in Georgia, but a losing candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote.
A new law in Michigan gives local elections officials more time to process and tabulate absentee mail ballots, which should help alleviate the logjam that slowed ballot counting in the 2020 presidential election. Cities and towns with at least 5,000 people may begin processing and tabulating ballots up to eight days before Election Day, while smaller jurisdictions may begin the morning before Election Day.
In 2020, more than 3.1 million voters cast their ballots by mail, about 56% of all ballots cast. State law at the time prevented election workers from opening the envelopes and preparing ballots for the count until the night before Election Day. Trump took an early lead in the vote count on election night, but that lead began to erode overnight and early Wednesday morning, and Biden took the lead later that afternoon. The law change may result in a speedier release of mail voting totals and may mitigate the so-called "red mirage" that Trump falsely claimed was evidence of voter fraud in Michigan and in a handful of other key states.
In Nevada, the state conducts its elections predominantly by mail. In 2021, the state adopted a law requiring mail-in ballots to be automatically sent to active voters, making permanent an emergency measure implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the midterm elections the following year, about 80% of voters cast their ballots in-person before Election Day or by mail.
Mail ballots that are postmarked by Election Day will be counted if they are received by Nov. 9, four days after Election Day. With a large number of mail ballots potentially arriving after Election Day, the outcome of some highly competitive races might not be determined until these additional mail ballots are received and tabulated. State Republicans challenged this law, but a federal court dismissed the lawsuit in July. In recent elections, votes counted after Election Day have been heavily Democratic.
North Carolina has a track record of counting votes relatively quickly, leaving only about 1% of the vote uncounted after election night. This year, the count could be slowed in some areas due to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. State elections officials approved emergency measures in nearly 30 western counties and tribal areas, giving voters additional options for turning in their absentee ballots.
In Pennsylvania, several factors contributed to a relatively slow vote counting process. Under Pennsylvania law, elections officials must wait until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day before they can begin to process ballots cast by mail and prepare them to be counted. The release of mail voting results cannot begin until after polls have closed. Because of the overall volume of mail ballots they comprised almost a quarter of the total vote in the 2022 midterm elections and the varying amounts of time it takes the states 67 counties to tally these votes, determining a winner in a highly competitive race could take several days, as it did in the 2020 presidential election.
In Wisconsin, the first vote results reported on election night tend to be a mix of ballots cast on Election Day and in advance. In the April presidential primaries, more than a third of counties reported most or all of their vote results in their first vote report of the night including in-person Election Day votes as well as mail-in and early votes. But larger counties, including the Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Dane, took much longer. Their first vote update of the night included only a small share of the total votes cast. In a close race, that likely means waiting for final results in both places to know who has won the state.
As the nation braces for another election, it is clear that the process of vote counting is complex and varies widely across states. However, the commitment to ensuring that every vote is counted correctly and securely remains a shared priority. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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