In the race for the 2024 presidential election, a significant majority of gamblers are placing their bets on the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, to emerge victorious.
This information was obtained from data provided by Star Sports, a leading bookmaker.
Over the past week, 95 percent of wagers placed on the presidential contest at Star Sports were in favor of Trump, while a mere 5 percent were placed on his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris. As reported by Newsweek, the current odds offered by Star Sports stand at 4/6 (60 percent) for Trump and 11/8 (42.1 percent) for Harris, indicating a clear preference for the former president.
Despite the betting odds, recent polling data suggests that the 2024 presidential election is a tight race. An analysis by election website 538, published last Thursday, shows Harris with a slight lead of 1.7 points, garnering 48.1 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 46.4 percent. However, due to the Electoral College system, Harris could potentially win the popular vote yet lose the election, a scenario reminiscent of Hillary Clinton's defeat in 2016. According to 538, Trump is favored to win the Electoral College, with a 51 percent chance of victory.
William Kedjanyi, a political betting analyst at Star Sports, stated, "It's been another week of Donald Trump being favored in the market, pulling in 95 percent of all bets placed on the upcoming U.S. presidential election." He further noted that despite the potential for unexpected developments before Election Day, Trump is comfortably leading according to the betting odds.
When queried about the overwhelming support for Trump in recent betting, a Star Sports spokesperson explained, "We laid Biden along with other candidates early on, then Harris when she was announced, along with several decent bets on Trump; so we find ourselves in a fairly comfortable position." The spokesperson attributed the recent surge in interest in Trump to favorable polls and competitive odds.
Star Sports also predicts Trump to win the pivotal swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. The bookmaker offers odds of 15/8 (34.8 percent) on Trump sweeping all seven states. Kedjanyi added, "Trump has also notably been backed at 15/8 to sweep all seven of the swing stateswhich the Republicans are odds-on for in each of the individual marketsto seriously bolster his chances when the nation goes to polls."
Anna Kelly, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, expressed confidence in Trump's broad appeal, stating, "President Trump is a candidate for ALL Americans, which is why he is winning in every battlegroundhis message resonates with voters across the country." She criticized Harris and the Democratic Party for their "dangerously liberal policies," asserting that Trump would rectify the issues caused by the current administration.
An election model from 338Canada, based on "opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data," contradicts the betting odds, favoring Harris to win the election with an average of 286 electoral votes against 252 for Trump. The model also predicts Harris to win the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, though Trump is favored in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
Recent data revealed an unusual trend in Nevada, where nearly 20,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats have already voted. This trend is "unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle," according to a prominent analyst.
However, a study by CNN political analyst Harry Enten indicates that Trump's lead among white women, a traditionally Republican voting group, is only 1 percentage point. This is the smallest lead with this demographic for any GOP candidate this century, suggesting a potential shift in voting patterns.
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