In a recent turn of events, former President Donald Trump's popularity among Hispanic voters in the crucial swing states of Arizona and Georgia has taken a noticeable dip, as per polling data shared with Newsweek.
This research, carried out by TelevisaUnivision from September 12 to 19, indicates a decline in Trump's Hispanic support base in these states, while Vice President Kamala Harris has seen an uptick in her popularity.
According to the poll, Harris holds a substantial 34-point lead over Trump among Hispanic voters in Arizona, a state where this demographic comprises a quarter of the electorate. The poll reveals that 52 percent of Hispanic voters have expressed a definite intention to vote for Harris, a rise from 43 percent in August. In contrast, Trump's committed Hispanic voter base has shrunk from 25 percent in August to a mere 18 percent. However, a significant 29 percent of Hispanic voters in Arizona remain undecided, with 15 percent leaning towards Harris and 11 percent towards Trump.
In Georgia, where the Hispanic voter population is smaller, Harris's lead over Trump is less pronounced, but she still leads by 7 points. The poll indicates that 44 percent of Hispanic voters are firmly in Harris's camp, up from 38 percent in July. Trump, on the other hand, has seen a marginal increase of 1 point in his Hispanic support base since July, with 22 percent expressing a firm commitment to vote for him. Georgia also has a larger number of undecided Hispanic voters, with 16 percent leaning towards Harris and 12 percent towards Trump.
Kathy Whitlock, vice president of Strategy and Insights at TelevisaUnivision, noted the high percentage of undecided Hispanic voters. "We're seeing large percentages of Hispanic voters who are still uncertain about their voteeven this close to election daywho claim that they still need information about candidates, parties, and their positions on issues in order to make an informed decision," she said. Whitlock emphasized the need for campaigns to engage these voters with relevant messaging, preferably in Spanish, a language neither of the presidential candidates speaks.
The poll also highlighted the key issues for Hispanic voters in both states: cost of living, inflation, and jobs. These are topics that the Harris campaign has prioritized, while Trump's campaign has shifted its focus to immigration and crime. However, less than half of the Hispanic voters in both states consider border security and immigration as the most important issue, while crime and public safety are the top concerns for 51 percent in Arizona and 55 percent in Georgia.
Despite Harris's lead in both states, the poll suggests her position may not be as secure as it seems. Trump's supporters display greater enthusiasm, with 80 percent in Arizona and 83 percent in Georgia saying their vote is more in support of Trump than in opposition to Harris. In contrast, 74 percent of Hispanic voters backing Harris said their vote is more in favor of her than against the Republican in both states.
While Harris appears to have a comfortable lead over Trump among Hispanic voters, some polls suggest that Trump's support among this demographic is growing. A recent ActiVote poll suggested Trump could see a substantial increase in Hispanic support, with 49 percent of Latino voters polled saying they would vote for the Republican, compared to 51 percent for Harris. This is a significant decrease from a 60/40 gap between Harris and Trump among Hispanic voters at the beginning of September.
In 2020, Trump received support from 38 percent of Latinos, up from 28 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center think tank, while 59 percent supported President Joe Biden. Statewide polls in Arizona have shown a similar pattern, with the most recent Newsweek/Siena College poll showing that Trump had support from 41 percent of Hispanic voters in Arizona, compared to Harris's 49 percent.
However, Trump's vote share among Hispanics in Georgia has largely remained around the 41 percent mark he gained in 2020. An ActiVote poll from September 10 showed 40 percent of Hispanic voters in Georgia plan to vote for Trump, while 58 percent said the same about Harris.
Despite the fluctuations in Hispanic voter support, overall polls show that Trump has a small lead over Harris in both Georgia and Arizona. As of Friday morning, FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker and pollster Nate Silver's tracker show the former president leading Harris by 1 point in both states. A research released last week by Newsweek and Siena College found that Trump had a lead of 4 to 5 points in both states.
In Arizona, which flipped blue in 2020, Trump was 5 points ahead of Harris, with 50 percent to her 45 percent. In Georgia, another state that Biden flipped blue by a narrow margin in 2020, Trump had a lead of 4 points, with 49 percent of the vote to Harris's 45 percent. These findings underscore the fluid nature of the political landscape, with the balance of power capable of shifting based on the changing sentiments of key demographics.
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